Football · Argentina Nacional B · 25/07, 21:00
Prediction: Atletico Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.7Total
Atletico Rafaela1.03
Nueva Chicago0.67
1X2
Atletico Rafaela
Draw
Nueva Chicago
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Rafaela
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Nueva Chicago
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Rafaela
0–3–3
Nueva Chicago
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Rafaela 1468 · Nueva Chicago 1465
| Atletico Rafaela | Draw | Nueva Chicago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| Market | 44% | 33% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.7 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Nueva Chicago: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Rafaela | Nueva Chicago | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Rafaela 0–3–3 Nueva Chicago
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/26 Argentina Nacional B | Nueva Chicago | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Rafaela |
| 19/07/24 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 1-5 HT 0-3 | Nueva Chicago |
| 01/03/24 Argentina Nacional B | Nueva Chicago | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Atletico Rafaela |
| 24/04/22 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Nueva Chicago |
| 29/09/18 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Nueva Chicago |
| 28/10/17 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nueva Chicago |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 22 | 38 |
| 2 | CA Atlanta | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 15 | 36 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Temperley | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Tristan Suarez | 20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | Ferrocarril Midland | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 15 | 30 |
| 6 | San Martin de Tucuman | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 30 |
| 7 | Deportivo Maipu | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 21 | 29 |
| 8 | Atletico Rafaela | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 27 |
| 9 | San Martin SJ | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 26 |
| 10 | Nueva Chicago | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 26 |
| 11 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 21 | 25 |
| 12 | Almagro | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 22 | 25 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 16 | 24 |
| 14 | CA Colegiales | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 20 | 23 |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 23 |
| 16 | Patronato Parana | 20 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 22 |
| 17 | Agropecuario | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 25 | 20 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 19 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Rafaela | Nueva Chicago |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atletico Temperley | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Maipu | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Almagro | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Patronato Parana | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Nueva Chicago (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Rafaela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 11/07 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 23/06 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Nueva Chicago
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/07 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 23/06 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/06 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 12/05 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Rafaela win (43%). Probabilities: Atletico Rafaela 43%, draw 34%, Nueva Chicago 23%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago?
The model expects 1.7 goals (Atletico Rafaela 1.03 · Nueva Chicago 0.67), with a 54% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.