Football · Argentina Nacional B · 17/07, 20:00
Prediction: Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin de Tucuman
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.21Total
Deportivo Maipu1.09
San Martin de Tucuman1.12
1X2
Deportivo Maipu
Draw
San Martin de Tucuman
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Maipu
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
San Martin de Tucuman
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Maipu
0–1–5
San Martin de Tucuman
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Maipu 1521 · San Martin de Tucuman 1515
| Deportivo Maipu | Draw | San Martin de Tucuman | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 32% | 35% |
| Market | 33% | 33% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.21 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours San Martin de Tucuman: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Maipu | San Martin de Tucuman | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.7 | 2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 6.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Maipu 0–1–5 San Martin de Tucuman
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin de Tucuman | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Deportivo Maipu |
| 21/08/25 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin de Tucuman | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Maipu |
| 30/03/25 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Maipu | 0-1 HT 0-1 | San Martin de Tucuman |
| 30/06/24 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin de Tucuman | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Maipu |
| 11/02/24 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Maipu | 0-2 HT 0-1 | San Martin de Tucuman |
| 29/03/22 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin de Tucuman | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Maipu |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 21 | 37 |
| 2 | CA Atlanta | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | Tristan Suarez | 20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 33 |
| 4 | Club Atletico Temperley | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 30 |
| 5 | Deportivo Maipu | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 21 | 28 |
| 6 | Ferrocarril Midland | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 15 | 27 |
| 7 | Atletico Rafaela | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 16 | 27 |
| 8 | San Martin de Tucuman | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 26 |
| 9 | Nueva Chicago | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 25 |
| 10 | Almagro | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 19 | 25 |
| 11 | Quilmes | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 15 | 24 |
| 12 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 20 | 24 |
| 13 | CA Colegiales | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 23 |
| 13 | San Martin SJ | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 23 |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 20 | 22 |
| 16 | Patronato Parana | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 21 |
| 17 | CA Guemes | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 32 | 19 |
| 18 | Agropecuario | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 24 | 18 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Maipu | San Martin de Tucuman |
|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia y Tiro | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Club Atletico Temperley | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Gimnasia Jujuy | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Maipu (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Maipu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
4-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
San Martin de Tucuman
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 20/06 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 07/06 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Banfield Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin de Tucuman?
According to our model, the most likely result is an San Martin de Tucuman win (34%). Probabilities: Deportivo Maipu 33%, draw 33%, San Martin de Tucuman 34%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin de Tucuman?
The model expects 2.21 goals (Deportivo Maipu 1.09 · San Martin de Tucuman 1.12), with a 55% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin de Tucuman?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.