Football · Poland League Women · 15/11, 15:00

Prediction: Lech Poznan UAM II (W) vs KKP Bydgoszcz (W)

Team pages: KKP Bydgoszcz (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Lech Poznan UAM II (W)1.61

KKP Bydgoszcz (W)1.59

1X2

38% 24% 38%

Lech Poznan UAM II (W) Draw KKP Bydgoszcz (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lech Poznan UAM II (W) 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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KKP Bydgoszcz (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lech Poznan UAM II (W) 1425 · KKP Bydgoszcz (W) 1483

	Lech Poznan UAM II (W)	Draw	KKP Bydgoszcz (W)
Our model	38%	25%	37%
Market	39%	23%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KKP Bydgoszcz (W) (rating 1425 vs 1483).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lech Poznan UAM II (W)	KKP Bydgoszcz (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.4	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/0/89%	17/67/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	1.2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	1.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.90

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +15’	2.30	3.90	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Polonia Sroda Wlkp (W)	10	7	2	1	25	7	23
2	Stomilanki Olsztyn (W)	10	7	1	2	26	11	22
3	Medyk Konin (W)	10	6	3	1	25	8	21
4	Czarni Sosnowiec II (W)	11	7	0	4	23	16	21
5	UKS Staszkowka Jelna (W)	10	6	1	3	23	14	19
6	Sportowa Czworka Radom (W)	9	5	0	4	19	24	15
7	Resovia Rzeszow (W)	11	4	3	4	15	15	15
8	LZS Stare Oborzyska (W)	10	4	2	4	14	17	14
9	KKP Bydgoszcz (W)	9	2	2	5	13	11	8
10	MKS Myszkow (W)	10	1	3	6	8	21	6
11	Lech Poznan UAM II (W)	10	1	2	7	10	24	5
12	Unia Lublin (W)	10	0	1	9	7	40	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lech Poznan UAM II (W)	KKP Bydgoszcz (W)
Stomilanki Olsztyn (W)	3-3 D	0-2 L
Resovia Rzeszow (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Unia Lublin (W)	3-0 W	6-0 W
MKS Myszkow (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
UKS Staszkowka Jelna (W)	2-3 L	2-3 L
LZS Stare Oborzyska (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Czarni Sosnowiec II (W)	0-3 L	0-1 L
Medyk Konin (W)	0-1 L	1-1 D
Polonia Sroda Wlkp (W)	1-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 6 L	2 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: KKP Bydgoszcz (W) (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lech Poznan UAM II (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Sportowa Czworka Radom (W) Poland League Women	0-1	0-6	4	3	L
30/10	Stomilanki Olsztyn (W) Poland League Women	2-3	3-3	2	2	D
17/10	Resovia Rzeszow (W) Poland League Women	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
04/10	Unia Lublin (W) Poland League Women	2-0	3-0	9	2	W
26/09	MKS Myszkow (W) Poland League Women	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
30/08	UKS Staszkowka Jelna (W) Poland League Women	0-1	2-3	3	1	L
22/08	LZS Stare Oborzyska (W) Poland League Women	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
16/08	Czarni Sosnowiec II (W) Poland League Women	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
09/08	Medyk Konin (W) Poland League Women	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
02/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp (W) Poland League Women	–	1-3	–	–	L

KKP Bydgoszcz (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	Medyk Konin (W) Poland League Women	–	1-1	–	–	D
07/11	UKS Staszkowka Jelna (W) Poland League Women	–	2-3	–	–	L
03/10	Stomilanki Olsztyn (W) Poland League Women	0-2	0-2	3	1	L
27/09	Czarni Sosnowiec II (W) Poland League Women	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
05/09	LZS Stare Oborzyska (W) Poland League Women	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Resovia Rzeszow (W) Poland League Women	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
16/08	Unia Lublin (W) Poland League Women	–	6-0	–	–	W
08/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp (W) Poland League Women	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	MKS Myszkow (W) Poland League Women	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
10/06	LZS Stare Oborzyska (W) Poland League Women	0-0	3-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan UAM II (W) vs KKP Bydgoszcz (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lech Poznan UAM II (W) win (38%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan UAM II (W) 38%, draw 24%, KKP Bydgoszcz (W) 38%.

How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan UAM II (W) vs KKP Bydgoszcz (W)?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Lech Poznan UAM II (W) 1.61 · KKP Bydgoszcz (W) 1.59), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan UAM II (W) vs KKP Bydgoszcz (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.