Football · Türkiye 1 Lig · 28/08, 18:00

Prediction: Keciorengucu vs Umraniyespor

Team pages: Keciorengucu · Umraniyespor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Keciorengucu1.8

Umraniyespor1.01

1X2

55% 24% 20%

Keciorengucu Draw Umraniyespor

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Keciorengucu 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWLLWD

Umraniyespor 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWLDLD

Head-to-head

Keciorengucu 4–2 Umraniyespor (6 last)

Umraniyespor1-4Keciorengucu
Keciorengucu3-1Umraniyespor
Keciorengucu0-1Umraniyespor
Umraniyespor1-2Keciorengucu
Keciorengucu4-2Umraniyespor
Umraniyespor2-0Keciorengucu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Keciorengucu 1541 · Umraniyespor 1448

	Keciorengucu	Draw	Umraniyespor
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keciorengucu (rating 1541 vs 1448).
H2H favours Keciorengucu: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Keciorengucu	Umraniyespor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 5	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.75

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 00:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.64
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.78
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 5.07 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:33 +35’	1.61	3.75	4.33
12:21 +2’	1.61	3.80▲	4.33
21:44 +6’	1.61	3.90▲	4.20▼
00:52 +4’	1.61	3.75▼	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +2’	1.64	3.78	5.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Keciorengucu 4–0–2 Umraniyespor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Türkiye 1 Lig	Umraniyespor	1-4 HT 1-4	Keciorengucu
28/12/25 Türkiye 1 Lig	Keciorengucu	3-1 HT 2-0	Umraniyespor
20/04/25 Türkiye 1 Lig	Keciorengucu	0-1 HT 0-0	Umraniyespor
15/12/24 Türkiye 1 Lig	Umraniyespor	1-2 HT 1-0	Keciorengucu
28/04/24 Türkiye 1 Lig	Keciorengucu	4-2 HT 4-1	Umraniyespor
09/12/23 Türkiye 1 Lig	Umraniyespor	2-0 HT 1-0	Keciorengucu

Standings · Türkiye 1 Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kayserispor	3	3	0	0	5	0	9
2	Mardin 1969	3	2	1	0	5	0	7
3	Manisa BBSK	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
4	Batman Petrolspor	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
5	Bursaspor	3	2	0	1	4	2	6
6	Fatih Karagumruk	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
7	Bandirmaspor	3	1	2	0	4	1	5
8	Keciorengucu	3	1	1	1	8	6	4
9	Sariyer	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
10	Pendikspor	3	1	1	1	6	8	4
11	Esenler Erokspor	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
11	76 Igdir Belediyespor	3	1	0	2	2	2	3
13	Antalyaspor	3	1	0	2	6	8	3
14	Vanspor FK	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
15	Umraniyespor	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
16	Bodrum FK	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
16	Sivasspor	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
18	Muglaspor	3	0	2	1	0	2	2
19	Istanbulspor	3	0	1	2	4	8	1
20	Boluspor	3	0	0	3	1	7	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Keciorengucu	Umraniyespor
Pendikspor	4-1 W	0-0 D
Esenler Erokspor	0-1 L	1-1 D
Vanspor FK	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Keciorengucu (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Keciorengucu

WWDLWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Bandirmaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	Pendikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-1	4-1	2	3	W
08/08	Antalyaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	3-4	5	4	L
07/05	Corum Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
02/05	Umraniyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	4-1	4-1	1	0	W
26/04	Manisa BBSK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
19/04	Esenler Erokspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
12/04	Serikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
08/04	76 Igdir Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
04/04	Vanspor FK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	3-0	3	5	W

Umraniyespor

DLWDLWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Esenler Erokspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
08/08	Mardin 1969 Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
02/05	Keciorengucu Türkiye 1 Lig	1-4	1-4	7	0	L
25/04	Adana Demirspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	3-1	7	6	W
19/04	Vanspor FK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-2	4	1	L
13/04	Amedspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
08/04	Sakaryaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
03/04	Bodrum FK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
21/03	Pendikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Keciorengucu vs Umraniyespor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Keciorengucu win (55%). Probabilities: Keciorengucu 55%, draw 24%, Umraniyespor 20%.

How many goals are expected in Keciorengucu vs Umraniyespor?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Keciorengucu 1.8 · Umraniyespor 1.01), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Keciorengucu vs Umraniyespor?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.