Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 19/07, 14:45

Prediction: Costa Do Sol vs Vilankulo FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Costa Do Sol1.33

Vilankulo FC0.72

1X2

51% 30% 19%

Costa Do Sol Draw Vilankulo FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Costa Do Sol 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDWDLW

Vilankulo FC 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLDDWD

Head-to-head

Costa Do Sol 3–1–2 Vilankulo FC (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Costa Do Sol 1526 · Vilankulo FC 1515

	Costa Do Sol	Draw	Vilankulo FC
Our model	50%	31%	19%
Market	51%	29%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Costa Do Sol: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Costa Do Sol	Vilankulo FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	3.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
07:14 +2’	1.75	3.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Costa Do Sol 3–1–2 Vilankulo FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/12/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Costa Do Sol	1-2 HT 1-0	Vilankulo FC
24/08/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Vilankulo FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Costa Do Sol
09/11/24 Mozambique Mocambola	Costa Do Sol	3-1 HT 1-1	Vilankulo FC
20/05/23 Mozambique Mocambola	Costa Do Sol	2-1 HT 1-1	Vilankulo FC
24/09/22 Mozambique Mocambola	Costa Do Sol	1-1 HT 1-0	Vilankulo FC
07/02/21 Mozambique Mocambola	Costa Do Sol	0-1 HT 0-0	Vilankulo FC

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ferroviario Beira	9	5	4	0	11	3	19
2	UD Songo	9	4	4	1	12	8	16
3	Black Bulls	8	3	5	0	10	3	14
4	Ferroviario de Nampula	7	4	1	2	11	11	13
5	Costa Do Sol	8	3	3	2	10	7	12
6	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	7	3	3	1	6	4	12
7	Ferroviario Lichinga	6	3	2	1	6	4	11
8	LD Sofala	9	2	4	3	5	10	10
9	Vilankulo FC	8	1	6	1	9	7	9
10	Ferroviario Maputo	8	2	2	4	3	5	8
11	AD Pemba	6	2	1	3	4	7	7
12	CD Maxaquene	9	0	4	5	4	11	4
13	Chingale de Tete	9	0	4	5	1	8	4
14	Baía de Pemba F.C	7	0	3	4	3	7	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Costa Do Sol	Vilankulo FC
Ferroviario Lichinga	1-2 L	0-0 D
Black Bulls	0-0 D	1-1 D
Ferroviario Maputo	1-0 W	0-0 D
CD Maxaquene	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Costa Do Sol (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Costa Do Sol

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	CD Estrela Vermelha de Maputo Mozambique Cup	0-0	2-0	15	5	W
26/06	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
20/06	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
16/06	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
20/05	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
17/05	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
12/05	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
09/05	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/05	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	3-1	4-1	4	4	W
08/12	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-2	4	1	L

Vilankulo FC

WDWDDLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
12/07	Vulcano Mozambique Cup	1-1	2-1	9	2	W
28/06	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
25/06	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
21/06	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-2	1	0	L
18/06	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-2	2	4	D
23/05	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/05	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
02/05	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
08/12	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	2-1	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Costa Do Sol vs Vilankulo FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Costa Do Sol win (51%). Probabilities: Costa Do Sol 51%, draw 30%, Vilankulo FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Costa Do Sol vs Vilankulo FC?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Costa Do Sol 1.33 · Vilankulo FC 0.72), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Costa Do Sol vs Vilankulo FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.