Football · Germany Regionalliga North East · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Zwickau vs Erzgebirge Aue

Team pages: Zwickau · Erzgebirge Aue

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Zwickau1.36

Erzgebirge Aue1.36

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Zwickau Draw Erzgebirge Aue

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Zwickau 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLLDWD

Erzgebirge Aue 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWDLLL

Head-to-head

Zwickau 1–1 Erzgebirge Aue (2 last)

Zwickau0-2Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue0-1Zwickau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zwickau 1515 · Erzgebirge Aue 1477

	Zwickau	Draw	Erzgebirge Aue
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	38%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zwickau	Erzgebirge Aue
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0 / 2	4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.48
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.55 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:46 +3’	2.40	3.60	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:09 +40’	2.56	3.37	2.48
07:41 +89’	2.48▼	3.37	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Zwickau 1–0–1 Erzgebirge Aue

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/23 Germany 3. Liga	Zwickau	0-2 HT 0-0	Erzgebirge Aue
11/09/22 Germany 3. Liga	Erzgebirge Aue	0-1 HT 0-1	Zwickau

Standings · Germany Regionalliga North East

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rot-Weiss Erfurt	14	9	4	1	42	18	31
2	Chemnitzer	14	9	3	2	30	9	30
3	Hallescher FC	13	8	4	1	20	9	28
4	VSG Altglienicke	14	8	3	3	26	17	27
5	Carl Zeiss Jena	14	8	2	4	23	12	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	7	5	2	22	13	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	7	3	4	23	18	24
8	Greifswalder SV 04	14	6	4	4	28	23	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	6	1	7	27	28	19
10	Zwickau	14	5	4	5	17	22	19
11	FC Lok Leipzig	13	4	5	4	25	25	17
12	Babelsberg 03	14	4	4	6	15	23	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	2	5	7	16	22	11
14	SV Tasmania Berlin	14	3	2	9	21	39	11
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	2	4	7	15	22	10
16	Hertha Berlin II	13	2	4	7	10	23	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	2	3	9	15	32	9
18	FSV 63 Luckenwalde	14	2	0	12	14	34	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zwickau	Erzgebirge Aue
Rot-Weiss Erfurt	2-2 D	2-2 D
Hertha Berlin II	1-1 D	0-0 D
Hallescher FC	1-3 L	0-1 L
BSG Chemie Leipzig	2-2 D	1-2 L
FSV 63 Luckenwalde	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zwickau

DWWWDLLDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Rot-Weiss Erfurt Germany Regionalliga North East	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
09/10	SV Tasmania Berlin Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
27/09	Hertha Berlin II Germany Regionalliga North East	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
18/09	Hallescher FC Germany Regionalliga North East	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
15/09	VSG Altglienicke Germany Regionalliga North East	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	BSG Chemie Leipzig Germany Regionalliga North East	2-0	2-2	0	6	D
30/08	Babelsberg 03 Germany Regionalliga North East	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
26/08	RSV Eintracht Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
14/08	FSV 63 Luckenwalde Germany Regionalliga North East	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	BFC Dynamo Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Erzgebirge Aue

WLDWWWDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Hallescher FC Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
11/10	Greifswalder SV 04 Germany Regionalliga North East	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	BSG Chemie Leipzig Germany Regionalliga North East	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	Rot-Weiss Erfurt Germany Regionalliga North East	0-1	2-2	3	6	D
16/09	Magdeburg II Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	FSV 63 Luckenwalde Germany Regionalliga North East	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	FC Lok Leipzig Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/08	Hertha Berlin II Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	Chemnitzer Germany Regionalliga North East	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
09/08	BFC Preussen Germany Regionalliga North East	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zwickau vs Erzgebirge Aue?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zwickau win (37%). Probabilities: Zwickau 37%, draw 26%, Erzgebirge Aue 37%.

How many goals are expected in Zwickau vs Erzgebirge Aue?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Zwickau 1.36 · Erzgebirge Aue 1.36), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Zwickau vs Erzgebirge Aue?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.