Football · Germany Regionalliga North East · 12/09, 14:30

Prediction: BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Zwickau

Team pages: BSG Chemie Leipzig · Zwickau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

BSG Chemie Leipzig1.44

Zwickau1.61

1X2

33% 27% 40%

BSG Chemie Leipzig Draw Zwickau

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

BSG Chemie Leipzig 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDLLD

Zwickau 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLDWWW

Head-to-head

BSG Chemie Leipzig 0–2–4 Zwickau (6 last)

Zwickau1-0BSG Chemie Leipzig
BSG Chemie Leipzig1-2Zwickau
Zwickau1-1BSG Chemie Leipzig
BSG Chemie Leipzig0-2Zwickau
BSG Chemie Leipzig1-2Zwickau
Zwickau0-0BSG Chemie Leipzig

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BSG Chemie Leipzig 1446 · Zwickau 1563

	BSG Chemie Leipzig	Draw	Zwickau
Our model	33%	26%	41%
Market	33%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zwickau (rating 1446 vs 1563).
H2H favours Zwickau: 4-2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BSG Chemie Leipzig	Zwickau
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	– / 0	2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.25

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.92 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.28
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:39 +2’	2.75	3.25	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +138’	2.92	3.28	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BSG Chemie Leipzig 0–2–4 Zwickau

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Germany Regionalliga North East	Zwickau	1-0 HT 0-0	BSG Chemie Leipzig
29/11/25 Germany Regionalliga North East	BSG Chemie Leipzig	1-2 HT 0-0	Zwickau
11/05/25 Germany Regionalliga North East	Zwickau	1-1 HT 1-1	BSG Chemie Leipzig
24/11/24 Germany Regionalliga North East	BSG Chemie Leipzig	0-2 HT 0-0	Zwickau
10/03/24 Germany Regionalliga North East	BSG Chemie Leipzig	1-2 HT 0-0	Zwickau
22/09/23 Germany Regionalliga North East	Zwickau	0-0 HT 0-0	BSG Chemie Leipzig

Standings · Germany Regionalliga North East

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rot-Weiss Erfurt	7	5	2	0	23	5	17
2	Chemnitzer	7	5	2	0	16	3	17
3	BFC Dynamo	8	4	2	2	13	9	14
4	Erzgebirge Aue	7	4	2	1	13	10	14
5	Magdeburg II	7	4	1	2	17	12	13
6	Carl Zeiss Jena	7	4	1	2	10	5	13
7	Zwickau	7	4	1	2	8	9	13
8	Greifswalder SV 04	7	3	3	1	15	10	12
9	VSG Altglienicke	7	3	3	1	14	10	12
10	Hallescher FC	7	3	3	1	9	5	12
11	FC Lok Leipzig	7	3	1	3	13	13	10
12	RSV Eintracht	7	1	3	3	11	15	6
13	Babelsberg 03	7	1	2	4	9	12	5
14	Hertha Berlin II	7	1	2	4	5	15	5
15	SV Tasmania Berlin	8	1	1	6	9	25	4
16	BFC Preussen	7	0	3	4	5	12	3
17	FSV 63 Luckenwalde	7	1	0	6	5	18	3
18	BSG Chemie Leipzig	7	0	2	5	2	9	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BSG Chemie Leipzig	Zwickau
Carl Zeiss Jena	0-1 L	2-1 W
RSV Eintracht	1-1 D	2-1 W
BFC Dynamo	0-2 L	0-0 D
Babelsberg 03	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Zwickau (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BSG Chemie Leipzig

WWLLLLDLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	VSG Altglienicke Germany Regionalliga North East	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
25/08	Magdeburg II Germany Regionalliga North East	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
14/08	Carl Zeiss Jena Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	RSV Eintracht Germany Regionalliga North East	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/08	Hallescher FC Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
01/08	BFC Dynamo Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	0-2	0	0	L
26/07	Babelsberg 03 Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
16/05	Zwickau Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/05	Eilenburg Germany Regionalliga North East	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
03/05	ZFC Meuselwitz Germany Regionalliga North East	3-0	4-0	–	–	W

Zwickau

WLWWLLDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Babelsberg 03 Germany Regionalliga North East	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
26/08	RSV Eintracht Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
14/08	FSV 63 Luckenwalde Germany Regionalliga North East	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	BFC Dynamo Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
04/08	Chemnitzer Germany Regionalliga North East	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
01/08	Greifswalder SV 04 Germany Regionalliga North East	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
26/07	Carl Zeiss Jena Germany Regionalliga North East	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	BSG Chemie Leipzig Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/05	Chemnitzer Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	2-3	7	5	L
03/05	Rot-Weiss Erfurt Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Zwickau?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Zwickau win (40%). Probabilities: BSG Chemie Leipzig 33%, draw 27%, Zwickau 40%.

How many goals are expected in BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Zwickau?

The model expects 3.05 goals (BSG Chemie Leipzig 1.44 · Zwickau 1.61), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Zwickau?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.