Football · Germany Regionalliga North East · 26/09, 14:00

Prediction: FC Lok Leipzig vs Rot-Weiss Erfurt

Team pages: FC Lok Leipzig · Rot-Weiss Erfurt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

FC Lok Leipzig1.72

Rot-Weiss Erfurt1.67

1X2

39% 25% 37%

FC Lok Leipzig Draw Rot-Weiss Erfurt

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Lok Leipzig 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLLDDW

Rot-Weiss Erfurt 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDWWD

Head-to-head

FC Lok Leipzig 5–1–0 Rot-Weiss Erfurt (6 last)

FC Lok Leipzig2-1Rot-Weiss Erfurt
Rot-Weiss Erfurt0-2FC Lok Leipzig
Rot-Weiss Erfurt2-4FC Lok Leipzig
FC Lok Leipzig0-0Rot-Weiss Erfurt
Rot-Weiss Erfurt0-1FC Lok Leipzig
FC Lok Leipzig1-0Rot-Weiss Erfurt

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rot-Weiss Erfurt (rating 1526 vs 1574).
H2H favours FC Lok Leipzig: 5-1-0.
High corners: 14 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lok Leipzig	Rot-Weiss Erfurt
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	3.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	– / 4	6 / 10
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:59

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.58▲	Pinn 2.58
X	3.72 → 3.72	Pinn 3.72
2	2.32 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.30

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +11’	2.55	3.72	2.32
22:31 +28’	2.58▲	3.72	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lok Leipzig 5–1–0 Rot-Weiss Erfurt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Germany Regionalliga North East	FC Lok Leipzig	2-1 HT 2-1	Rot-Weiss Erfurt
05/10/25 Germany Regionalliga North East	Rot-Weiss Erfurt	0-2 HT 0-2	FC Lok Leipzig
18/05/25 Germany Regionalliga North East	Rot-Weiss Erfurt	2-4 HT 1-2	FC Lok Leipzig
01/12/24 Germany Regionalliga North East	FC Lok Leipzig	0-0 HT 0-0	Rot-Weiss Erfurt
13/04/24 Germany Regionalliga North East	Rot-Weiss Erfurt	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Lok Leipzig
29/10/23 Germany Regionalliga North East	FC Lok Leipzig	1-0 HT 0-0	Rot-Weiss Erfurt

Standings · Germany Regionalliga North East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rot-Weiss Erfurt	10	7	3	0	32	8	24
2	Chemnitzer	10	7	2	1	21	5	23
3	BFC Dynamo	11	6	3	2	20	12	21
4	VSG Altglienicke	11	6	3	2	20	14	21
5	Erzgebirge Aue	10	6	3	1	19	14	21
6	Carl Zeiss Jena	11	6	1	4	19	10	19
7	Hallescher FC	10	5	4	1	15	7	19
8	Greifswalder SV 04	11	5	4	2	23	16	19
9	FC Lok Leipzig	10	4	3	3	20	19	15
10	Zwickau	10	4	2	4	12	16	14
11	Magdeburg II	11	4	1	6	20	23	13
12	BFC Preussen	10	2	4	4	12	14	10
13	Babelsberg 03	10	2	3	5	11	15	9
14	Hertha Berlin II	10	2	2	6	8	20	8
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	10	1	3	6	10	16	6
16	RSV Eintracht	10	1	3	6	13	25	6
17	SV Tasmania Berlin	11	1	2	8	13	36	5
18	FSV 63 Luckenwalde	10	1	0	9	7	25	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lok Leipzig	Rot-Weiss Erfurt
Carl Zeiss Jena	2-1 W	2-1 W
BFC Dynamo	2-2 D	4-1 W
Erzgebirge Aue	1-2 L	2-2 D
SV Tasmania Berlin	3-2 W	6-0 W
Hertha Berlin II	1-2 L	2-1 W
BFC Preussen	2-1 W	1-1 D
Magdeburg II	3-3 D	4-1 W
FSV 63 Luckenwalde	3-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Rot-Weiss Erfurt (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Lok Leipzig

WDWLWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Carl Zeiss Jena Germany Regionalliga North East	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
16/09	BFC Dynamo Germany Regionalliga North East	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
13/09	Greifswalder SV 04 Germany Regionalliga North East	3-2	3-3	–	–	D
30/08	Erzgebirge Aue Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
25/08	Chemnitzer Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	SV Tasmania Berlin Germany Regionalliga North East	3-1	3-2	–	–	W
08/08	Hertha Berlin II Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
05/08	BFC Preussen Germany Regionalliga North East	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
02/08	Magdeburg II Germany Regionalliga North East	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
24/07	FSV 63 Luckenwalde Germany Regionalliga North East	1-1	3-1	–	–	W

Rot-Weiss Erfurt

WDWWWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Erzgebirge Aue Germany Regionalliga North East	1-0	2-2	10	6	D
15/09	Hertha Berlin II Germany Regionalliga North East	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/09	RSV Eintracht Germany Regionalliga North East	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
29/08	BFC Preussen Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/08	FSV 63 Luckenwalde Germany Regionalliga North East	3-0	5-0	–	–	W
15/08	Magdeburg II Germany Regionalliga North East	2-0	4-1	10	4	W
09/08	Carl Zeiss Jena Germany Regionalliga North East	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
05/08	SV Tasmania Berlin Germany Regionalliga North East	3-0	6-0	–	–	W
02/08	Hallescher FC Germany Regionalliga North East	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
24/07	BFC Dynamo Germany Regionalliga North East	4-0	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Lok Leipzig vs Rot-Weiss Erfurt?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Lok Leipzig win (39%). Probabilities: FC Lok Leipzig 39%, draw 25%, Rot-Weiss Erfurt 37%.

How many goals are expected in FC Lok Leipzig vs Rot-Weiss Erfurt?

The model expects 3.39 goals (FC Lok Leipzig 1.72 · Rot-Weiss Erfurt 1.67), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Lok Leipzig vs Rot-Weiss Erfurt?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.