Football · Austria Landesliga · 16/10, 19:00

Prediction: Union Edelweiss vs ASK St.Valentin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

Union Edelweiss2.62

ASK St.Valentin1.2

1X2

67% 18% 15%

Union Edelweiss Draw ASK St.Valentin

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Edelweiss 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLWWWW

ASK St.Valentin 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Union Edelweiss 0–1 ASK St.Valentin (1 last)

ASK St.Valentin3-1Union Edelweiss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Edelweiss 1589 · ASK St.Valentin 1515

	Union Edelweiss	Draw	ASK St.Valentin
Our model	67%	18%	15%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Edelweiss (rating 1589 vs 1515).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Edelweiss	ASK St.Valentin
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 8	– / –
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	– / –

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:38 +27’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Edelweiss 0–0–1 ASK St.Valentin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/08/23 Austria Landesliga	ASK St.Valentin	3-1 HT 2-0	Union Edelweiss

Standings · Austria Landesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sportunion Mauer	8	7	1	0	23	2	22
2	Red Star Penzing	8	6	1	1	18	10	19
3	LAC Inter	8	6	0	2	18	12	18
4	Floridsdorfer AC II	8	5	1	2	17	9	16
5	TWL Elektra	8	5	1	2	14	10	16
6	Helfort 15	8	4	2	2	14	7	14
7	SV Schwechat	8	4	0	4	14	12	12
8	First Vienna II	8	3	1	4	18	19	10
9	Hellas Kagran	8	2	2	4	14	17	8
10	Slovan HAC	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
11	FC 1980 Wien	8	2	2	4	10	20	8
12	FV Austria XIII	8	1	4	3	11	13	7
13	WAF Brigittenau	7	2	1	4	8	14	7
14	Post SV	8	1	2	5	13	11	5
15	SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf	7	1	2	4	9	19	5
16	Simmeringer SC	8	1	0	7	3	24	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Edelweiss	ASK St.Valentin
SV Garsten	7-1 W	3-2 W
Gmundner	3-0 W	1-4 L
UVB Vocklamarkt	3-0 W	2-2 D
Union Gschwandt	3-0 W	0-0 D
Union Mondsee	2-3 L	1-4 L
Union Perg	2-1 W	2-1 W
SV Friedburg Pondorf	2-3 L	6-0 W
Sportunion Sankt Martin	4-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Edelweiss (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Edelweiss

WLWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	SV Garsten Austria Landesliga	3-0	7-1	–	–	W
02/10	Gmundner Austria Landesliga	3-0	3-0	8	1	W
25/09	UVB Vocklamarkt Austria Landesliga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
18/09	Union Gschwandt Austria Landesliga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Union Mondsee Austria Landesliga	0-3	2-3	–	–	L
04/09	Grun Weiss Micheldorf Austria Landesliga	3-1	4-1	–	–	W
29/08	Union Ostermiething Austria Landesliga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
25/08	Union Perg Austria Landesliga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
14/08	SV Friedburg Pondorf Austria Landesliga	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
11/08	Sportunion Sankt Martin Austria Landesliga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W

ASK St.Valentin

LLDDDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Union Perg Austria Landesliga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
02/10	SV Garsten Austria Landesliga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
26/09	SV Friedburg Pondorf Austria Landesliga	4-0	6-0	–	–	W
18/09	Gmundner Austria Landesliga	0-3	1-4	–	–	L
11/09	Sportunion Sankt Martin Austria Landesliga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
04/09	UVB Vocklamarkt Austria Landesliga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
27/08	FC Andorf Austria Landesliga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
21/08	Union Gschwandt Austria Landesliga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
14/08	SV Bad Ischl Austria Landesliga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
11/08	Union Mondsee Austria Landesliga	0-2	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Edelweiss vs ASK St.Valentin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Edelweiss win (67%). Probabilities: Union Edelweiss 67%, draw 18%, ASK St.Valentin 15%.

How many goals are expected in Union Edelweiss vs ASK St.Valentin?

The model expects 3.82 goals (Union Edelweiss 2.62 · ASK St.Valentin 1.2), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Edelweiss vs ASK St.Valentin?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.