Football · Austria Landesliga · 26/10, 14:00

Prediction: TSV Grafenstein vs ATUS Ferlach

Team pages: TSV Grafenstein · ATUS Ferlach

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

TSV Grafenstein2.44

ATUS Ferlach1.29

1X2

62% 19% 19%

TSV Grafenstein Draw ATUS Ferlach

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

TSV Grafenstein 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLDWWD

ATUS Ferlach 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLWDWW

Head-to-head

TSV Grafenstein 1–1 ATUS Ferlach (2 last)

TSV Grafenstein5-0ATUS Ferlach
ATUS Ferlach2-0TSV Grafenstein

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TSV Grafenstein 1577 · ATUS Ferlach 1516

	TSV Grafenstein	Draw	ATUS Ferlach
Our model	62%	20%	18%
Market	63%	18%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TSV Grafenstein (rating 1577 vs 1516).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TSV Grafenstein	ATUS Ferlach
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.3	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.5	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/0/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.3	1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X5.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.44▲	Bet365 1.44
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:03 +22’	1.40	5.00	5.00
07:01 +15’	1.44▲	5.00	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TSV Grafenstein 1–0–1 ATUS Ferlach

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Austria Landesliga	TSV Grafenstein	5-0 HT 2-0	ATUS Ferlach
18/10/25 Austria Landesliga	ATUS Ferlach	2-0 HT 2-0	TSV Grafenstein

Standings · Austria Landesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sportunion Mauer	10	7	3	0	26	5	24
2	LAC Inter	10	7	1	2	22	15	22
3	Red Star Penzing	10	7	1	2	20	13	22
4	TWL Elektra	10	7	1	2	22	16	22
5	Floridsdorfer AC II	10	6	1	3	21	13	19
6	Helfort 15	10	5	3	2	16	7	18
7	FV Austria XIII	10	3	4	3	15	13	13
8	First Vienna II	10	4	1	5	21	21	13
9	SV Schwechat	10	4	0	6	16	17	12
10	WAF Brigittenau	10	3	2	5	14	17	11
11	Slovan HAC	10	2	4	4	13	18	10
12	FC 1980 Wien	10	2	3	5	12	25	9
13	Simmeringer SC	10	3	0	7	7	26	9
14	Hellas Kagran	10	2	2	6	15	20	8
15	SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf	10	1	4	5	11	22	7
16	Post SV	10	1	2	7	17	20	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TSV Grafenstein	ATUS Ferlach
St Veit SC	1-1 D	2-2 D
ASKO Kottmannsdorf	4-0 W	4-1 W
SV Seeboden	4-1 W	1-1 D
SV Dellach/Gail	2-2 D	4-0 W
Launsdorf	1-3 L	1-2 L
St.Michael/Lavanttal	6-2 W	1-1 D
Nussdorf	4-1 W	5-0 W
SAK Klagenfurt	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: TSV Grafenstein (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TSV Grafenstein

WDWWWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	St Veit SC Austria Landesliga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	ASKO Kottmannsdorf Austria Landesliga	1-0	4-0	5	4	W
10/10	SV Seeboden Austria Landesliga	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
03/10	SV Dellach/Gail Austria Landesliga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
26/09	Launsdorf Austria Landesliga	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
18/09	St.Michael/Lavanttal Austria Landesliga	4-0	6-2	–	–	W
13/09	SC Landskron Austria Landesliga	3-0	4-1	6	3	W
04/09	Nussdorf Austria Landesliga	2-1	4-1	2	7	W
28/08	TSU Matrei Austria Landesliga	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
23/08	SAK Klagenfurt Austria Landesliga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

ATUS Ferlach

LDDLWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	ASKO Kottmannsdorf Austria Landesliga	3-1	4-1	–	–	W
17/10	SV Dellach/Gail Austria Landesliga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
10/10	St.Michael/Lavanttal Austria Landesliga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
02/10	Nussdorf Austria Landesliga	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
26/09	SAK Klagenfurt Austria Landesliga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
18/09	Lendorf Austria Landesliga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
11/09	KAC 1909 Austria Landesliga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/09	St Veit SC Austria Landesliga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	SV Seeboden Austria Landesliga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
21/08	Launsdorf Austria Landesliga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TSV Grafenstein vs ATUS Ferlach?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TSV Grafenstein win (62%). Probabilities: TSV Grafenstein 62%, draw 19%, ATUS Ferlach 19%.

How many goals are expected in TSV Grafenstein vs ATUS Ferlach?

The model expects 3.72 goals (TSV Grafenstein 2.44 · ATUS Ferlach 1.29), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in TSV Grafenstein vs ATUS Ferlach?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.