Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 08/08, 10:15

Prediction: FC Kurim vs FC Chotebor

Team pages: FC Kurim · FC Chotebor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

FC Kurim2.04

FC Chotebor1.11

1X2

58% 22% 20%

FC Kurim Draw FC Chotebor

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kurim 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWWDDL

FC Chotebor 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Kurim 1–1 FC Chotebor (2 last)

FC Chotebor1-0FC Kurim
FC Kurim3-0FC Chotebor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kurim 1547 · FC Chotebor 1507

	FC Kurim	Draw	FC Chotebor
Our model	58%	23%	19%
Market	59%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Kurim (rating 1547 vs 1507).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kurim	FC Chotebor
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6.1	1.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:23 +22’	1.53	4.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kurim 1–0–1 FC Chotebor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Chotebor	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Kurim
25/10/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Kurim	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Chotebor

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hlucin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Vratimov	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SSK Bilovec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Bohumin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Frydek Mistek B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	TJ Novy Jicin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Sumperk	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kravare	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Opava B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pusta Polom	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jiskra Rymarov	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SK Stonava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SK Zabreh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bridlicna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	TJ Valasske Mezirici	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kurim	FC Chotebor
Sparta Brno	3-1 W	1-2 L
FK Pelhrimov	8-1 W	1-2 L
SC Znojmo	3-1 W	1-3 L
FC Spartak Velka Bites	1-1 D	3-1 W
SK Artis Brno B	0-0 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Kurim (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Kurim

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	TJ Sokol Lanzhot Club Friendly List	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
26/07	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia Cup	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
18/07	SK Olympia Rajecko Club Friendly List	2-0	3-3	12	0	D
13/06	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
06/06	Sparta Brno Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-1	3	4	W
30/05	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
23/05	FK Pelhrimov Czechia 4. Liga	4-0	8-1	–	–	W
16/05	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
10/05	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
02/05	SK Artis Brno B Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D

FC Chotebor

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Velke Mezirici Czechia Cup	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
13/06	Sparta Brno Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
06/06	FK Pelhrimov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
30/05	FC Kurim Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/05	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-3	8	4	L
17/05	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
08/05	SK Artis Brno B Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	0-5	–	–	L
01/05	Velke Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
25/04	Havlickuv Brod Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
19/04	Sokol Tasovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kurim vs FC Chotebor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Kurim win (58%). Probabilities: FC Kurim 58%, draw 22%, FC Chotebor 20%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kurim vs FC Chotebor?

The model expects 3.15 goals (FC Kurim 2.04 · FC Chotebor 1.11), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kurim vs FC Chotebor?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.