Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 02/08, 10:15

Prediction: SK Unicov vs MFK Karvina B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

SK Unicov2.04

MFK Karvina B1.16

1X2

57% 23% 20%

SK Unicov Draw MFK Karvina B

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SK Unicov 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWDWLWWD

MFK Karvina B 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLDDLDWW

Head-to-head

SK Unicov 4–2 MFK Karvina B (6 last)

MFK Karvina B3-0SK Unicov
SK Unicov5-2MFK Karvina B
MFK Karvina B0-1SK Unicov
SK Unicov2-1MFK Karvina B
SK Unicov2-1MFK Karvina B
MFK Karvina B3-2SK Unicov

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Unicov 1525 · MFK Karvina B 1476

	SK Unicov	Draw	MFK Karvina B
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Unicov (rating 1525 vs 1476).
H2H favours SK Unicov: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Unicov	MFK Karvina B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 4.2	2.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.67▲	Bet365 1.67
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	4.33 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.12 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:57 +5’	1.57	4.00	4.33
15:20 +18’	1.67▲	3.90▼	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:57	1.66	3.85	4.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Unicov 4–0–2 MFK Karvina B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Czechia 3. Liga	MFK Karvina B	3-0 HT 0-0	SK Unicov
03/08/25 Czechia 3. Liga	SK Unicov	5-2 HT 2-0	MFK Karvina B
09/03/25 Czechia 3. Liga	MFK Karvina B	0-1 HT 0-0	SK Unicov
04/08/24 Czechia 3. Liga	SK Unicov	2-1 HT 2-1	MFK Karvina B
21/04/24 Czechia 3. Liga	SK Unicov	2-1 HT 1-1	MFK Karvina B
17/09/23 Czechia 3. Liga	MFK Karvina B	3-2 HT 1-0	SK Unicov

Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	TJ Unie Hlubina	1	1	0	8	2	3
2	Frydek Mistek	1	1	0	1	0	3
3	Slovacko II	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	CSK Uhersky Brod	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	FC Vsetin	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	FC Trinity Zlin B	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	FK Blansko	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	FK Hodonin	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	MFK Havirov	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	MFK Karvina B	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	MFK Vitkovice	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SFK Vrchovina	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SK Artis Brno B	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Polanka	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Sigma Olomouc B	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SK Unicov	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SK Hranice	1	0	1	0	1	0
18	FC Brno II	1	0	1	2	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Unicov	MFK Karvina B
TJ Unie Hlubina	2-1 W	1-1 D
Hlucin	2-1 W	2-2 D
FC Trinity Zlin B	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SK Unicov (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SK Unicov

DDLWDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Usti N Orlici Club Friendly List	1-1	1-1	2	0	D
06/06	TJ Unie Hlubina Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
31/05	Slovacko II Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
23/05	FK Hodonin Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
20/05	Hlucin Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
17/05	Trinec Czechia 3. Liga	3-3	3-3	3	4	D
08/05	FK Blansko Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/05	MFK Vitkovice Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	0-4	3	4	L
29/04	FC Trinity Zlin B Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
25/04	Frydek Mistek Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

MFK Karvina B

DLLLDDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	FC Vsetin Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
06/06	FC Brno II Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
29/05	SK Hranice Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
24/05	Sigma Olomouc B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
20/05	Polanka Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
17/05	Hlucin Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-2	6	9	D
10/05	FC Trinity Zlin B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
03/05	TJ Start Brno Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-5	4	5	L
29/04	SFK Vrchovina Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	2-3	10	4	L
25/04	TJ Unie Hlubina Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Unicov vs MFK Karvina B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Unicov win (57%). Probabilities: SK Unicov 57%, draw 23%, MFK Karvina B 20%.

How many goals are expected in SK Unicov vs MFK Karvina B?

The model expects 3.2 goals (SK Unicov 2.04 · MFK Karvina B 1.16), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Unicov vs MFK Karvina B?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.