Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 08/08, 17:00

Prediction: Breclav vs Sternberk

Team pages: Sternberk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Breclav1.76

Sternberk1.36

1X2

47% 24% 29%

Breclav Draw Sternberk

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Breclav 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDWWLL

Sternberk 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDDLLWLLD

Head-to-head

Breclav 1–1 Sternberk (2 last)

Sternberk0-2Breclav
Breclav1-2Sternberk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Breclav 1464 · Sternberk 1451

	Breclav	Draw	Sternberk
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	47%	23%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Breclav	Sternberk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/56/33%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.90

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:23 +7’	1.91	3.90	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Breclav 1–0–1 Sternberk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Czechia 4. Liga	Sternberk	0-2 HT 0-2	Breclav
25/10/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Breclav	1-2 HT 1-0	Sternberk

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	1	1	0	2	0	3
2	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	FC Vratimov	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	SSK Bilovec	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Frydek Mistek B	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	TJ Novy Jicin	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	FK Sumperk	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kravare	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Opava B	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Pusta Polom	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Jiskra Rymarov	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	SK Stonava	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	SK Zabreh	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bridlicna	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	TJ Valasske Mezirici	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Hlucin	1	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Breclav	Sternberk
Bzenec	0-1 L	1-3 L
FK Kozlovice	0-1 L	1-3 L
Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B	3-2 W	5-2 W
FC Brumov	0-0 D	1-3 L
FC Strani	1-3 L	1-1 D
SK Batov	0-1 L	1-1 D
FK Nove Sady	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Breclav (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Breclav

LWLLLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Bzenec Czechia Cup	–	0-1	–	–	L
10/06	FK Kozlovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
06/06	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	3-2	4	5	W
30/05	Sternberk Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
23/05	FC Brumov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	FC Strani Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-3	8	0	L
09/05	SK Batov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
02/05	Bzenec Czechia 4. Liga	1-4	2-7	–	–	L
25/04	FK Nove Sady Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
19/04	TJ Skastice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	8	7	L

Sternberk

DLDDLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Jiskra Rymarov Czechia Cup	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
03/06	FK Kozlovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
30/05	Breclav Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-2	5	7	L
24/05	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	5-2	5	2	W
12/05	Tatran Vsechovice Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-4	8	1	L
09/05	FC Brumov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
01/05	FC Strani Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	SK Batov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	Bzenec Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
11/04	FK Nove Sady Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Breclav vs Sternberk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Breclav win (47%). Probabilities: Breclav 47%, draw 24%, Sternberk 29%.

How many goals are expected in Breclav vs Sternberk?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Breclav 1.76 · Sternberk 1.36), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Breclav vs Sternberk?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.