Football · Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga · 22/08, 20:45

Prediction: Velez Mostar vs FK Sloga Doboj

Team pages: Velez Mostar · FK Sloga Doboj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Velez Mostar1.24

FK Sloga Doboj1.08

1X2

39% 30% 31%

Velez Mostar Draw FK Sloga Doboj

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Velez Mostar 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWLLLL

FK Sloga Doboj 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLDWWD

Head-to-head

Velez Mostar 4–1–1 FK Sloga Doboj (6 last)

FK Sloga Doboj0-3Velez Mostar
Velez Mostar0-0FK Sloga Doboj
Velez Mostar3-1FK Sloga Doboj
FK Sloga Doboj1-2Velez Mostar
Velez Mostar2-0FK Sloga Doboj
FK Sloga Doboj2-1Velez Mostar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Velez Mostar 1495 · FK Sloga Doboj 1433

	Velez Mostar	Draw	FK Sloga Doboj
Our model	39%	31%	31%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Velez Mostar (rating 1495 vs 1433).
H2H favours Velez Mostar: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Velez Mostar	FK Sloga Doboj
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	0.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3	2.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.4	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.39 ★
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.04
2	2.75 → 2.90▲	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:09 +1’	2.40	2.90	2.75
03:31 +2’	2.30▼	3.00▲	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:04 +7’	2.33	3.05	2.98
03:33 +1’	2.33	3.10▲	2.95▼
10:50 +33’	2.36▲	3.01▼	2.98▲
16:58 +3’	2.39▲	3.04▲	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Velez Mostar 4–1–1 FK Sloga Doboj

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/26 Bosnia & Herzegovina Cup	FK Sloga Doboj	0-3 HT 0-3	Velez Mostar
11/04/26 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Velez Mostar	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Sloga Doboj
08/04/26 Bosnia & Herzegovina Cup	Velez Mostar	3-1 HT 2-1	FK Sloga Doboj
13/12/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	FK Sloga Doboj	1-2 HT 0-1	Velez Mostar
04/10/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Velez Mostar	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Sloga Doboj
26/07/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	FK Sloga Doboj	2-1 HT 2-1	Velez Mostar

Standings · Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zrinjski Mostar	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
2	Siroki Brijeg	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
3	FK Sarajevo	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
4	Borac Banja Luka	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
5	Zeljeznicar	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	BSK Banja Luka	3	1	0	2	3	3	3
7	FK Sloga Doboj	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
8	Radnik Bijeljina	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
9	NK Celik Zenica	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
10	Velez Mostar	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Velez Mostar	FK Sloga Doboj
Borac Banja Luka	1-3 L	1-3 L
Zrinjski Mostar	0-3 L	0-3 L
FK Sarajevo	2-3 L	0-4 L
FK Rudar Prijedor	4-2 W	1-0 W
HSK Posusje	1-1 D	1-0 W
Radnik Bijeljina	1-0 W	0-0 D
Zeljeznicar	0-0 D	0-3 L
Siroki Brijeg	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Velez Mostar (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Velez Mostar

DWDWDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	BSK Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
09/08	Borac Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
26/05	Zrinjski Mostar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-2	0-3	1	4	L
21/05	FK Sarajevo Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-0	2-3	2	3	L
16/05	FK Rudar Prijedor Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	3-2	4-2	3	8	W
09/05	HSK Posusje Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
01/05	Radnik Bijeljina Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
25/04	Zeljeznicar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
21/04	Siroki Brijeg Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	2-0	3-0	3	0	W
18/04	Borac Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-2	2-2	3	2	D

FK Sloga Doboj

DLLLWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Siroki Brijeg Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
26/05	FK Rudar Prijedor Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
22/05	HSK Posusje Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/05	Radnik Bijeljina Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
10/05	Zeljeznicar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	0-3	5	1	L
02/05	Siroki Brijeg Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
26/04	Borac Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
22/04	FK Sarajevo Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	0-4	5	1	L
18/04	Zrinjski Mostar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	0-3	8	0	L
11/04	Velez Mostar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	0-0	4	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Velez Mostar vs FK Sloga Doboj?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Velez Mostar win (39%). Probabilities: Velez Mostar 39%, draw 30%, FK Sloga Doboj 31%.

How many goals are expected in Velez Mostar vs FK Sloga Doboj?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Velez Mostar 1.24 · FK Sloga Doboj 1.08), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Velez Mostar vs FK Sloga Doboj?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.