Football · Czechia Cup · 02/08, 17:00

Prediction: FC Karlovy Vary vs Chomutov

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

FC Karlovy Vary1.52

Chomutov1.41

1X2

40% 25% 35%

FC Karlovy Vary Draw Chomutov

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Karlovy Vary 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDWWWW

Chomutov 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWLWD

Head-to-head

FC Karlovy Vary 4–1–1 Chomutov (6 last)

FC Karlovy Vary2-2Chomutov
Chomutov0-2FC Karlovy Vary
FC Karlovy Vary5-1Chomutov
FC Karlovy Vary4-0Chomutov
Chomutov4-1FC Karlovy Vary
Chomutov0-6FC Karlovy Vary

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Karlovy Vary 1561 · Chomutov 1533

	FC Karlovy Vary	Draw	Chomutov
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	41%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Karlovy Vary: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Karlovy Vary	Chomutov
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.7	2.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 6	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.80

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 1.25 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:23 +7’	2.20	3.80	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Karlovy Vary 4–1–1 Chomutov

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Karlovy Vary	2-2 HT 2-0	Chomutov
16/08/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Chomutov	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Karlovy Vary
11/09/24 Czechia Cup	FC Karlovy Vary	5-1 HT 1-1	Chomutov
27/01/24 Europe Friendlies	FC Karlovy Vary	4-0 HT 2-0	Chomutov
17/08/22 Czechia Cup	Chomutov	4-1 HT 3-0	FC Karlovy Vary
12/06/21 Europe Friendlies	Chomutov	0-6 HT 0-2	FC Karlovy Vary

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Karlovy Vary	Chomutov
Viktoria Marianske Lazne	4-1 W	3-0 W
Banik Sokolov	4-3 W	2-2 D
SK Slany	2-2 D	4-1 W
FK Ostrov	0-2 L	0-1 L
FK Louny	3-2 W	2-1 W
Meteor Prague VIII	3-1 W	2-1 W
FK Usti nad Labem B	2-5 L	0-3 L
SK Rapid Psary	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Karlovy Vary

LLWWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	FC Predni Kopanina Czechia 4. Liga	4-0	6-0	10	0	W
06/06	FK Olympie Brezova Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	7-0	11	0	W
02/06	Viktoria Marianske Lazne Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	4-1	5	7	W
29/05	Banik Sokolov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	4-3	2	6	W
22/05	SK Slany Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	2-2	4	2	D
16/05	FK Ostrov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
08/05	FK Louny Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	3-2	4	3	W
25/04	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
18/04	FK Usti nad Labem B Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	2-5	5	1	L
10/04	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L

Chomutov

WLLWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	Banik Sokolov Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
05/06	SK Slany Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	4-1	6	1	W
30/05	FK Ostrov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
22/05	FK Louny Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
15/05	Viktoria Marianske Lazne Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
08/05	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
05/05	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	3-2	5	5	W
02/05	FK Usti nad Labem B Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
24/04	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	2-3	5	5	L
18/04	TJ Spoje Praha Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Karlovy Vary vs Chomutov?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Karlovy Vary win (40%). Probabilities: FC Karlovy Vary 40%, draw 25%, Chomutov 35%.

How many goals are expected in FC Karlovy Vary vs Chomutov?

The model expects 2.93 goals (FC Karlovy Vary 1.52 · Chomutov 1.41), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Karlovy Vary vs Chomutov?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.