Prediction: CD Vargas Torres vs Independiente del Valle
Expected goals: 2.3 (CD Vargas Torres 0.52 · Independiente del Valle 1.79). The model gives 10% home, 22% draw, 68% away. Under 2.5 goals (54%) and not both to score (54%). Most likely score: 0-1.
Over its last 10 matches, CD Vargas Torres sits at 4-4-2 (W-D-L), while Independiente del Valle arrives on a 8-0-2 run.
| CD Vargas Torres | Draw | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 9% | 23% | 67% |
| Market | 11% | 21% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1519 vs 1602).
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Vargas Torres | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 2.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 1.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/33/22% | 70/30/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.7 | 4.1 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Vargas Torres
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 06/06 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 15/05 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 05/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador Super Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | UCV Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Vargas Torres vs Independiente del Valle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle win (68%). Probabilities: CD Vargas Torres 10%, draw 22%, Independiente del Valle 68%.
How many goals are expected in CD Vargas Torres vs Independiente del Valle?
The model expects 2.3 goals (CD Vargas Torres 0.52 · Independiente del Valle 1.79), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Vargas Torres vs Independiente del Valle?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.