Football · Czechia First League · 23/08, 20:00

Prediction: Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice

Team pages: Sigma Olomouc · Pardubice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Sigma Olomouc1.77

Pardubice1.2

1X2

49% 26% 25%

Sigma Olomouc Draw Pardubice

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sigma Olomouc 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWLDWW

Pardubice 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sigma Olomouc 2–2–2 Pardubice (6 last)

Pardubice2-1Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc2-0Pardubice
Sigma Olomouc4-0Pardubice
Pardubice2-2Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc0-2Pardubice
Pardubice1-1Sigma Olomouc

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sigma Olomouc 1582 · Pardubice 1522

	Sigma Olomouc	Draw	Pardubice
Our model	50%	26%	25%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sigma Olomouc (rating 1582 vs 1522).
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sigma Olomouc	Pardubice
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.7	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.94
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.69 ★
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.71

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:27 +4’	1.85	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:37	1.88	3.69	3.79
14:46 +1’	1.87▼	3.71▲	3.85▲
19:29 +2’	1.90▲	3.67▼	3.74▼
22:03 +1’	1.90	3.68▲	3.76▲
12:48 +2’	1.94▲	3.63▼	3.64▼
20:58 +4’	1.94	3.69▲	3.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sigma Olomouc 2–2–2 Pardubice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Czechia First League	Pardubice	2-1 HT 1-1	Sigma Olomouc
09/11/25 Czechia First League	Sigma Olomouc	2-0 HT 0-0	Pardubice
15/02/25 Czechia First League	Sigma Olomouc	4-0 HT 1-0	Pardubice
04/12/24 Czechia First League	Pardubice	2-2 HT 0-1	Sigma Olomouc
30/03/24 Czechia First League	Sigma Olomouc	0-2 HT 0-1	Pardubice
21/10/23 Czechia First League	Pardubice	1-1 HT 1-0	Sigma Olomouc

Standings · Czechia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Slavia Prague	5	3	2	0	14	5	11
2	Mlada Boleslav	5	3	2	0	11	6	11
3	Slovan Liberec	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
4	Sparta Prague	5	3	0	2	12	7	9
5	FK Jablonec	3	3	0	0	5	1	9
6	Hradec Kralove	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
7	Sigma Olomouc	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
8	FK Teplice	4	2	1	1	10	10	7
9	Banik Ostrava	4	2	0	2	3	6	6
10	Bohemians 1905	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
11	Viktoria Plzen	4	1	2	1	10	11	5
12	FC Brno	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
13	Slovacko	5	0	1	4	4	11	1
14	SK Artis Brno	5	0	1	4	4	12	1
15	Pardubice	4	0	1	3	3	7	1
16	FC Trinity Zlin	5	0	0	5	3	10	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sigma Olomouc	Pardubice
Mlada Boleslav	2-2 D	1-1 D
FK Jablonec	1-2 L	0-2 L
MFK Karvina	4-0 W	1-2 L
Slavia Prague	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sigma Olomouc (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sigma Olomouc

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Slovacko Czechia First League	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
09/08	SK Artis Brno Czechia First League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
02/08	Mlada Boleslav Czechia First League	1-1	2-2	8	1	D
26/07	FK Jablonec Czechia First League	1-0	1-2	0	3	L
23/05	MFK Karvina Czechia First League	2-0	4-0	6	1	W
16/05	MFK Karvina Czechia First League	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
10/05	Bohemians 1905 Czechia First League	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
02/05	Bohemians 1905 Czechia First League	1-0	3-1	5	1	W
25/04	Slavia Prague Czechia First League	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
19/04	Slovacko Czechia First League	2-1	2-1	6	6	W

Pardubice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Mlada Boleslav Czechia First League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
09/08	Slavia Prague Czechia First League	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
02/08	FK Jablonec Czechia First League	0-2	0-2	8	2	L
26/07	Hradec Kralove Czechia First League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
10/05	MFK Karvina Czechia First League	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
02/05	MFK Karvina Czechia First League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
25/04	FC Trinity Zlin Czechia First League	1-0	3-1	3	1	W
19/04	Viktoria Plzen Czechia First League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/04	Sigma Olomouc Czechia First League	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
04/04	Dukla Praha Czechia First League	0-0	2-0	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sigma Olomouc win (49%). Probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 49%, draw 26%, Pardubice 25%.

How many goals are expected in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Sigma Olomouc 1.77 · Pardubice 1.2), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.