Football · Armenia Premier League · 01/08, 16:00

Prediction: BKMA FC vs Shirak

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

BKMA FC1.28

Shirak1.02

1X2

42% 29% 29%

BKMA FC Draw Shirak

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

BKMA FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Shirak 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

BKMA FC 2–3–1 Shirak (6 last)

Shirak1-1BKMA FC
BKMA FC0-0Shirak
BKMA FC2-1Shirak
BKMA FC3-2Shirak
Shirak0-0BKMA FC
BKMA FC0-2Shirak

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BKMA FC 1471 · Shirak 1402

	BKMA FC	Draw	Shirak
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BKMA FC (rating 1471 vs 1402).
H2H favours BKMA FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BKMA FC	Shirak
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.1	1.3 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.68 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:09 +9’	2.10	3.30	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:18	1.92	3.21	3.58
07:17	1.94▲	3.29▲	3.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BKMA FC 2–3–1 Shirak

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/26 Armenia Premier League	Shirak	1-1 HT 1-1	BKMA FC
12/04/26 Armenia Premier League	BKMA FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Shirak
16/08/25 Armenia Premier League	BKMA FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Shirak
18/04/25 Armenia Premier League	BKMA FC	3-2 HT 0-0	Shirak
08/03/25 Armenia Premier League	Shirak	0-0 HT 0-0	BKMA FC
02/08/24 Armenia Premier League	BKMA FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Shirak

Standings · Armenia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alashkert FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ararat Yerevan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ararat Armenia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BKMA FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gandzasar Kapan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Noah	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pyunik Yerevan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shirak	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Syunik	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Urartu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Van	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sardarapat FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BKMA FC	Shirak
Ararat Yerevan	1-1 D	0-2 L
Ararat Armenia	2-3 L	0-4 L
Pyunik Yerevan	0-2 L	0-1 L
Alashkert FC	2-2 D	0-2 L
FC Van	2-1 W	0-1 L
Gandzasar Kapan	1-1 D	2-3 L
FC Urartu	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: BKMA FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

BKMA FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/05	Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
17/05	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	1-0	2-3	3	3	L
09/05	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
02/05	Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League	0-1	2-2	1	4	D
23/04	FC Van Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
19/04	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
16/04	Shirak Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
12/04	Shirak Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
05/04	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
20/03	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L

Shirak

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/05	Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
18/05	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
08/05	FC Van Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
01/05	Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
26/04	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	2-0	2-3	1	3	L
20/04	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
16/04	BKMA FC Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
12/04	BKMA FC Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
06/04	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
02/04	Ararat Armenia Armenian Cup	0-0	0-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BKMA FC vs Shirak?

According to our model, the most likely result is a BKMA FC win (42%). Probabilities: BKMA FC 42%, draw 29%, Shirak 29%.

How many goals are expected in BKMA FC vs Shirak?

The model expects 2.29 goals (BKMA FC 1.28 · Shirak 1.02), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in BKMA FC vs Shirak?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.