Football · Russia Division 1 · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula
Team pages: Shinnik Yaroslavl · Arsenal Tula
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Shinnik Yaroslavl1.75
Arsenal Tula0.77
1X2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Draw
Arsenal Tula
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Shinnik Yaroslavl
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Arsenal Tula
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3–2–1
Arsenal Tula
(6 last)
- Shinnik Yaroslavl2-0Arsenal Tula
- Arsenal Tula1-1Shinnik Yaroslavl
- Shinnik Yaroslavl2-1Arsenal Tula
- Arsenal Tula1-1Shinnik Yaroslavl
- Shinnik Yaroslavl1-0Arsenal Tula
- Arsenal Tula2-0Shinnik Yaroslavl
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shinnik Yaroslavl (rating 1532 vs 1439).
- H2H favours Shinnik Yaroslavl: 3-2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shinnik Yaroslavl | Arsenal Tula | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | – / 5.3 | – / – |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | – / – |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shinnik Yaroslavl 3–2–1 Arsenal Tula
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Russia Division 1 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Arsenal Tula |
| 25/07/25 Russia Division 1 | Arsenal Tula | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Shinnik Yaroslavl |
| 20/04/25 Russia Division 1 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Arsenal Tula |
| 26/10/24 Russia Division 1 | Arsenal Tula | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Shinnik Yaroslavl |
| 25/05/24 Russia Division 1 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Arsenal Tula |
| 17/09/23 Russia Division 1 | Arsenal Tula | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Shinnik Yaroslavl |
Standings · Russia Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Nizhny Novgorod | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Veles | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | FC Ufa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | FK Spartak Kostroma | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Ural | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Torpedo Moscow | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | FK Yenisey | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | FK Chelyabinsk | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Rotor Volgograd | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 12 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 13 | FK Leningradets | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | PFC Sochi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | FK Volga Ulyanovsk | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Tekstilshik Ivanovo | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 17 | Kamaz Nab Chelny | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 18 | SKA Energia Khabarovsk | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shinnik Yaroslavl | Arsenal Tula |
|---|---|---|
| Torpedo Moscow | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| PFC Sochi | 2-2 D | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | FC Nizhny Novgorod Russia Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Torpedo Moscow Russia Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 19/07 | FK Leningradets Russia Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 16 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | PFC Sochi Russia Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | FK Chelyabinsk Russia Division 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 11/05 | Torpedo Moscow Russia Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/05 | Ural Russia Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | SKA Energia Khabarovsk Russia Division 1 |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/04 | Fakel Voronezh Russia Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Arsenal Tula Russia Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Arsenal Tula
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Torpedo Moscow Russia Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/07 | PFC Sochi Russia Division 1 |
0-3 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 19/07 | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk Russia Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 13/07 | Tekstilshik Ivanovo Russia Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | CSKA Moscow Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/06 | FK Spartak Kostroma Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/06 | FK Volga Ulyanovsk Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Rodina Moscow Russia Division 1 |
0-3 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 11/05 | FK Yenisey Russia Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 04/05 | Rotor Volgograd Russia Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shinnik Yaroslavl win (60%). Probabilities: Shinnik Yaroslavl 60%, draw 25%, Arsenal Tula 15%.
How many goals are expected in Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.75 · Arsenal Tula 0.77), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.