Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 15/08, 12:00
Prediction: FC Metalist Kharkiv vs PFC Oleksandria
Team pages: FC Metalist Kharkiv · PFC Oleksandria
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
FC Metalist Kharkiv0.92
PFC Oleksandria1.65
1X2
FC Metalist Kharkiv
Draw
PFC Oleksandria
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Metalist Kharkiv
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
PFC Oleksandria
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Metalist Kharkiv
1–2–1
PFC Oleksandria
(4 last)
- FC Metalist Kharkiv0-0PFC Oleksandria
- PFC Oleksandria1-3FC Metalist Kharkiv
- PFC Oleksandria2-0FC Metalist Kharkiv
- FC Metalist Kharkiv1-1PFC Oleksandria
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Metalist Kharkiv 1535 · PFC Oleksandria 1483
| FC Metalist Kharkiv | Draw | PFC Oleksandria | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 27% | 54% |
| Market | 20% | 26% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Metalist Kharkiv (rating 1535 vs 1483).
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Metalist Kharkiv | PFC Oleksandria | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 5.6 | 2.2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Metalist Kharkiv 1–2–1 PFC Oleksandria
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/23 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | FC Metalist Kharkiv | 0-0 HT 0-0 | PFC Oleksandria |
| 05/09/22 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | PFC Oleksandria | 1-3 HT 1-1 | FC Metalist Kharkiv |
| 28/11/15 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | PFC Oleksandria | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Metalist Kharkiv |
| 02/08/15 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | FC Metalist Kharkiv | 1-1 HT 0-0 | PFC Oleksandria |
Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Viktoriya Sumy | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | SC Poltava | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | FK Kulykiv-Bilka | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Metalist Kharkiv | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | PFC Oleksandria | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | UCSA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 8 | Ingulets Petrovo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 9 | FC Chernigiv | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Nyva Ternopil | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 13 | FC Probiy Horodenka | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 14 | Polissya Zhytomyr II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 14 | Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 16 | FSC Feniks-Mariupol | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Metalist Kharkiv | PFC Oleksandria |
|---|---|---|
| UCSA | 2-0 W | 4-4 D |
| Nyva Ternopil | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Metalist Kharkiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 01/08 | FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga |
3-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 01/06 | Chernomorets Odessa Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 26/05 | FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Vorskla Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
PFC Oleksandria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/07 | UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-1 | 4-4 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 24/07 | Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 09/06 | FC Livyi Bereh Ukraine Vyscha Liga Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/06 | FC Livyi Bereh Ukraine Vyscha Liga Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Rukh Lviv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/05 | FC Zorya Lugansk Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 08/05 | Polissya Zhytomyr Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Kolos Kovalivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Metalist Kharkiv vs PFC Oleksandria?
According to our model, the most likely result is an PFC Oleksandria win (54%). Probabilities: FC Metalist Kharkiv 20%, draw 27%, PFC Oleksandria 54%.
How many goals are expected in FC Metalist Kharkiv vs PFC Oleksandria?
The model expects 2.57 goals (FC Metalist Kharkiv 0.92 · PFC Oleksandria 1.65), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Metalist Kharkiv vs PFC Oleksandria?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.