Football · Austria Landesliga · 17/10, 15:15

Prediction: TSV Grafenstein vs ASKO Kottmannsdorf

Team pages: TSV Grafenstein · ASKO Kottmannsdorf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.06Total

TSV Grafenstein3

ASKO Kottmannsdorf1.06

1X2

76% 14% 10%

TSV Grafenstein Draw ASKO Kottmannsdorf

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

TSV Grafenstein 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWWLDW

ASKO Kottmannsdorf 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLDLL

Head-to-head

TSV Grafenstein 3–1–1 ASKO Kottmannsdorf (5 last)

ASKO Kottmannsdorf0-0TSV Grafenstein
TSV Grafenstein4-3ASKO Kottmannsdorf
ASKO Kottmannsdorf1-3TSV Grafenstein
TSV Grafenstein0-2ASKO Kottmannsdorf
ASKO Kottmannsdorf1-2TSV Grafenstein

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TSV Grafenstein 1546 · ASKO Kottmannsdorf 1397

	TSV Grafenstein	Draw	ASKO Kottmannsdorf
Our model	76%	15%	10%
Market	76%	14%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 4.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TSV Grafenstein (rating 1546 vs 1397).
H2H favours TSV Grafenstein: 3-1-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TSV Grafenstein	ASKO Kottmannsdorf
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	1.3 / 3.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.7	0.4 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4	4 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.5	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.82

2 (+2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:41 +32’	1.18	6.50	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TSV Grafenstein 3–1–1 ASKO Kottmannsdorf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/11/25 Austria Landesliga	ASKO Kottmannsdorf	0-0 HT 0-0	TSV Grafenstein
01/08/25 Austria Landesliga	TSV Grafenstein	4-3 HT 1-0	ASKO Kottmannsdorf
04/06/24 Austria Amateur Cup	ASKO Kottmannsdorf	1-3 HT 1-1	TSV Grafenstein
22/05/24 Austria Amateur Cup	TSV Grafenstein	0-2 HT 0-1	ASKO Kottmannsdorf
09/02/24 Club Friendly List	ASKO Kottmannsdorf	1-2 HT 1-0	TSV Grafenstein

Standings · Austria Landesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sportunion Mauer	8	7	1	0	23	2	22
2	Red Star Penzing	8	6	1	1	18	10	19
3	LAC Inter	8	6	0	2	18	12	18
4	Floridsdorfer AC II	8	5	1	2	17	9	16
5	TWL Elektra	8	5	1	2	14	10	16
6	Helfort 15	8	4	2	2	14	7	14
7	SV Schwechat	8	4	0	4	14	12	12
8	First Vienna II	8	3	1	4	18	19	10
9	Hellas Kagran	8	2	2	4	14	17	8
10	Slovan HAC	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
11	WAF Brigittenau	8	2	2	4	9	15	8
12	FC 1980 Wien	8	2	2	4	10	20	8
13	FV Austria XIII	8	1	4	3	11	13	7
14	SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf	8	1	3	4	10	20	6
15	Post SV	8	1	2	5	13	11	5
16	Simmeringer SC	8	1	0	7	3	24	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TSV Grafenstein	ASKO Kottmannsdorf
SV Seeboden	4-1 W	2-2 D
SV Dellach/Gail	2-2 D	0-3 L
Launsdorf	1-3 L	1-3 L
St.Michael/Lavanttal	6-2 W	1-2 L
SC Landskron	4-1 W	3-5 L
Nussdorf	4-1 W	2-2 D
SAK Klagenfurt	1-0 W	1-2 L
Lendorf	1-2 L	2-7 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: TSV Grafenstein (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TSV Grafenstein

LDWDWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	SV Seeboden Austria Landesliga	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
03/10	SV Dellach/Gail Austria Landesliga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
26/09	Launsdorf Austria Landesliga	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
18/09	St.Michael/Lavanttal Austria Landesliga	4-0	6-2	–	–	W
13/09	SC Landskron Austria Landesliga	3-0	4-1	6	3	W
04/09	Nussdorf Austria Landesliga	2-1	4-1	2	7	W
28/08	TSU Matrei Austria Landesliga	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
23/08	SAK Klagenfurt Austria Landesliga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
14/08	SV Spittal/Drau Austria Landesliga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
07/08	Lendorf Austria Landesliga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

ASKO Kottmannsdorf

LLDLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	SV Dellach/Gail Austria Landesliga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
04/10	St.Michael/Lavanttal Austria Landesliga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Nussdorf Austria Landesliga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
19/09	SAK Klagenfurt Austria Landesliga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
11/09	Lendorf Austria Landesliga	0-4	2-7	–	–	L
06/09	KAC 1909 Austria Landesliga	1-0	1-3	7	5	L
28/08	St Veit SC Austria Landesliga	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
23/08	SV Seeboden Austria Landesliga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
14/08	Launsdorf Austria Landesliga	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
09/08	SC Landskron Austria Landesliga	1-3	3-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TSV Grafenstein vs ASKO Kottmannsdorf?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TSV Grafenstein win (76%). Probabilities: TSV Grafenstein 76%, draw 14%, ASKO Kottmannsdorf 10%.

How many goals are expected in TSV Grafenstein vs ASKO Kottmannsdorf?

The model expects 4.06 goals (TSV Grafenstein 3 · ASKO Kottmannsdorf 1.06), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in TSV Grafenstein vs ASKO Kottmannsdorf?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.