Football · Austria Regionalliga North · 02/10, 19:00

Prediction: Seekirchen vs Union Gurten

Team pages: Seekirchen · Union Gurten

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Seekirchen1.43

Union Gurten1.61

1X2

34% 25% 42%

Seekirchen Draw Union Gurten

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Seekirchen 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWLLDW

Union Gurten 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDWWLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seekirchen 1474 · Union Gurten 1529

	Seekirchen	Draw	Union Gurten
Our model	33%	26%	41%
Market	34%	23%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Gurten (rating 1474 vs 1529).
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Seekirchen	Union Gurten
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	5 / 6.3	3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.7	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.80

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 2.60▼	Pinn 2.88 ★
X	4.00 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
2	1.80 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.12

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
04:04 +4’	3.25	4.00	1.80
07:42 +26’	2.88▼	3.90▼	1.95▲
00:53 +12’	2.60▼	3.80▼	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +4’	2.92	3.37	2.05
17:00 +43’	2.88▼	3.43▲	2.12▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Austria Regionalliga North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SV Wals-Grünau	10	6	4	0	21	11	22
2	SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen	9	6	1	2	26	9	19
3	Union Gurten	11	5	3	3	18	11	18
4	LASK Linz II	9	5	2	2	28	10	17
5	SV Bad Schallerbach	10	5	2	3	23	14	17
6	SV Kuchl	9	4	2	3	18	15	14
7	SK Vorwärts Steyr	9	4	2	3	13	11	14
8	TSV St. Johann	10	4	2	4	11	15	14
9	SV Grodig	9	4	1	4	12	13	13
10	Seekirchen	11	3	3	5	12	17	12
11	Vortuna Bad Leonfelden	9	2	4	3	15	20	10
12	Junge Wikinger Ried	10	3	1	6	10	24	10
13	Union Dietach	9	2	2	5	11	24	8
14	OTSU Hallein	9	1	3	5	9	21	6
15	FC Pinzgau	10	1	2	7	12	24	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Seekirchen	Union Gurten
TSV St. Johann	1-2 L	0-0 D
SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen	3-0 W	0-2 L
FC Pinzgau	2-2 D	4-1 W
SV Kuchl	2-1 W	1-0 W
LASK Linz II	0-8 L	1-1 D
SV Grodig	0-1 L	0-1 L
SK Vorwärts Steyr	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Gurten (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Seekirchen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Junge Wikinger Ried Austria Regionalliga North	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
18/09	SV Wals-Grünau Austria Regionalliga North	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/09	Union Dietach Austria Regionalliga North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
04/09	TSV St. Johann Austria Regionalliga North	0-1	1-2	8	6	L
28/08	SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen Austria Regionalliga North	1-0	3-0	4	8	W
21/08	FC Pinzgau Austria Regionalliga North	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
14/08	SV Kuchl Austria Regionalliga North	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/08	LASK Linz II Austria Regionalliga North	0-3	0-8	7	5	L
07/08	SV Grodig Austria Regionalliga North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
31/07	SK Vorwärts Steyr Austria Regionalliga North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Union Gurten

LWWWLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	TSV St. Johann Austria Regionalliga North	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
18/09	SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen Austria Regionalliga North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	FC Pinzgau Austria Regionalliga North	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
04/09	SV Kuchl Austria Regionalliga North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	LASK Linz II Austria Regionalliga North	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	SV Grodig Austria Regionalliga North	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
14/08	SK Vorwärts Steyr Austria Regionalliga North	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
11/08	Vortuna Bad Leonfelden Austria Regionalliga North	3-1	5-2	–	–	W
07/08	SV Bad Schallerbach Austria Regionalliga North	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/08	OTSU Hallein Austria Regionalliga North	1-1	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seekirchen vs Union Gurten?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Gurten win (42%). Probabilities: Seekirchen 34%, draw 25%, Union Gurten 42%.

How many goals are expected in Seekirchen vs Union Gurten?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Seekirchen 1.43 · Union Gurten 1.61), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Seekirchen vs Union Gurten?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.