Football · Austria Regionalliga North · 16/10, 19:00

Prediction: SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen vs Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

Team pages: SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.15Total

SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen2.95

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden1.2

1X2

73% 15% 12%

SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen Draw Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLWWWW

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLDLLW

Head-to-head

SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen 1–0 Vortuna Bad Leonfelden (1 last)

SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen7-2Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen 1548 · Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1479

	SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen	Draw	Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
Our model	72%	16%	12%
Market	73%	14%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 4.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen (rating 1548 vs 1479).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen	Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.9	2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.5	– / –
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.5	– / –

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.98

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:01 +4’	1.22	6.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen 1–0–0 Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/25 Europe Friendlies	SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen	7-2 HT 4-1	Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

Standings · Austria Regionalliga North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen	11	8	1	2	31	10	25
2	LASK Linz II	11	7	2	2	35	11	23
3	SV Wals-Grünau	12	6	5	1	23	14	23
4	Union Gurten	12	6	3	3	19	11	21
5	SV Kuchl	11	5	3	3	23	19	18
6	SV Bad Schallerbach	11	5	2	4	23	16	17
7	SV Grodig	11	5	1	5	18	19	16
8	SK Vorwärts Steyr	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
9	TSV St. Johann	11	4	2	5	11	16	14
10	Junge Wikinger Ried	12	4	2	6	15	28	14
11	Vortuna Bad Leonfelden	11	3	4	4	21	24	13
12	Seekirchen	11	3	3	5	12	17	12
13	OTSU Hallein	11	2	3	6	11	24	9
14	Union Dietach	11	2	2	7	13	32	8
15	FC Pinzgau	11	1	2	8	13	28	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen	Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
SV Bad Schallerbach	2-0 W	2-2 D
OTSU Hallein	3-1 W	4-0 W
Union Gurten	2-0 W	2-5 L
Junge Wikinger Ried	5-0 W	1-1 D
Union Dietach	6-0 W	3-2 W
FC Pinzgau	4-1 W	4-1 W
SV Kuchl	2-2 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen

DWWWLLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	SV Bad Schallerbach Austria Regionalliga North	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
03/10	OTSU Hallein Austria Regionalliga North	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
18/09	Union Gurten Austria Regionalliga North	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Junge Wikinger Ried Austria Regionalliga North	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
08/09	SV Wals-Grünau Austria Regionalliga North	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
28/08	Seekirchen Austria Regionalliga North	0-1	0-3	8	8	L
21/08	TSV St. Johann Austria Regionalliga North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
14/08	Union Dietach Austria Regionalliga North	3-0	6-0	–	–	W
11/08	FC Pinzgau Austria Regionalliga North	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
07/08	SV Kuchl Austria Regionalliga North	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

DLWDWLDLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Pinzgau Austria Regionalliga North	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
03/10	SV Kuchl Austria Regionalliga North	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
26/09	LASK Linz II Austria Regionalliga North	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
19/09	SV Grodig Austria Regionalliga North	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
11/09	SK Vorwärts Steyr Austria Regionalliga North	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
04/09	Union Dietach Austria Regionalliga North	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
29/08	SV Bad Schallerbach Austria Regionalliga North	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	OTSU Hallein Austria Regionalliga North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
11/08	Union Gurten Austria Regionalliga North	1-3	2-5	–	–	L
07/08	Junge Wikinger Ried Austria Regionalliga North	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen vs Vortuna Bad Leonfelden?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen win (73%). Probabilities: SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen 73%, draw 15%, Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 12%.

How many goals are expected in SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen vs Vortuna Bad Leonfelden?

The model expects 4.15 goals (SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen 2.95 · Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1.2), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen vs Vortuna Bad Leonfelden?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.