Prediction: UWC (W) vs Mamelodi Sundowns (W)
Expected goals: 2.73 (UWC (W) 0.41 · Mamelodi Sundowns (W) 2.33). The model gives 5% home, 14% draw, 81% away. Under 3 goals (56%) and not both to score (56%). Most likely score: 0-2.
On recent form, UWC (W) is 4-4-2 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Mamelodi Sundowns (W) 10-0-0 over its own. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for UWC (W) and 3 for Mamelodi Sundowns (W), with 1 draw.
| UWC (W) | Draw | Mamelodi Sundowns (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 4% | 16% | 80% |
| Market | 6% | 12% | 82% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mamelodi Sundowns (W) (rating 1509 vs 1632).
- H2H favours Mamelodi Sundowns (W): 3-1-0.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UWC (W) | Mamelodi Sundowns (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 2 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 90/10/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.5 | 4.3 / 7.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 2.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UWC (W) 0–1–3 Mamelodi Sundowns (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/25 South Africa League Women | Mamelodi Sundowns (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | UWC (W) |
| 14/05/23 South Africa League Women | Mamelodi Sundowns (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | UWC (W) |
| 18/09/22 South Africa League Women | Mamelodi Sundowns (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | UWC (W) |
| 06/10/19 South Africa League Women | Mamelodi Sundowns (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | UWC (W) |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UWC (W) | Mamelodi Sundowns (W) |
|---|---|---|
| University of Pretoria (W) | 0-2 L | 4-0 W |
| TS Galaxy (W) | 2-2 D | 4-0 W |
| Copper Belts FC (W) | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Johannesburg Uni (W) | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Mamelodi Sundowns (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UWC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | University of Pretoria (W) South Africa League Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Stellenbosch FC (W) South Africa League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | TS Galaxy (W) South Africa League Women |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 12/11 | JVW FC (W) South Africa League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/11 | City Lads FC (W) South Africa League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/11 | Ezemvelo (W) South Africa League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 08/10 | UCT (W) South Africa League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/10 | University of Pretoria (W) South Africa League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 28/09 | Copper Belts FC (W) South Africa League Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 24/09 | Johannesburg Uni (W) South Africa League Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Mamelodi Sundowns (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Richmond United (W) South Africa League Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | University of Pretoria (W) South Africa League Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Diepkloof FC (W) South Africa League Women |
2-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 07/12 | TS Galaxy (W) South Africa League Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 16/11 | Copper Belts FC (W) South Africa League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 12/11 | Johannesburg Uni (W) South Africa League Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 01/11 | Durban Ladies FC (W) South Africa League Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 19/10 | Johannesburg Uni (W) South Africa League Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | University of Pretoria (W) South Africa League Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 28/09 | TUT FC (W) South Africa League Women |
4-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UWC (W) vs Mamelodi Sundowns (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mamelodi Sundowns (W) win (81%). Probabilities: UWC (W) 5%, draw 14%, Mamelodi Sundowns (W) 81%.
How many goals are expected in UWC (W) vs Mamelodi Sundowns (W)?
The model expects 2.73 goals (UWC (W) 0.41 · Mamelodi Sundowns (W) 2.33), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in UWC (W) vs Mamelodi Sundowns (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.