Prediction: Montevideo Wanderers (W) vs Nacional De Football (W)
Expected goals: 4.26 (Montevideo Wanderers (W) 1.13 · Nacional De Football (W) 3.13). The model gives 7% home, 11% draw, 82% away. Under 4.75 goals (57%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-3.
On recent form, Montevideo Wanderers (W) is 5-2-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Nacional De Football (W) 10-0-0 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Montevideo Wanderers (W) won 0 and Nacional De Football (W) 6.
| Montevideo Wanderers (W) | Draw | Nacional De Football (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 5% | 8% | 87% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional De Football (W) (rating 1527 vs 1659).
- H2H favours Nacional De Football (W): 6-0-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montevideo Wanderers (W) | Nacional De Football (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 67/33/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5 | 2.8 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.4 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montevideo Wanderers (W) 0–0–6 Nacional De Football (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/25 Uruguay League Women | Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 0-1 | Nacional De Football (W) |
| 31/08/25 Uruguay League Women | Nacional De Football (W) | 7-0 HT 4-0 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) |
| 04/05/25 Uruguay League Women | Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 0-6 | Nacional De Football (W) |
| 25/10/24 Uruguay League Women | Nacional De Football (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) |
| 05/05/24 Uruguay League Women | Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Nacional De Football (W) |
| 30/09/23 Uruguay League Women | Nacional De Football (W) | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) |
Standings · Uruguay League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nacional De Football (W) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | Penarol (W) | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Defensor Sporting (W) | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Montevideo City Torque (W) | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 9 | 13 |
| 7 | Canadian SC (W) | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 9 |
| 8 | Danubio (W) | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 4 |
| 9 | FC San Jacinto (W) | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 3 |
| 10 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montevideo Wanderers (W) | Nacional De Football (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Juventud de Las Piedras (W) | 3-0 W | 10-0 W |
| Danubio (W) | 5-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Defensor Sporting (W) | 2-3 L | 8-0 W |
| Penarol (W) | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Canadian SC (W) | 4-0 W | 8-0 W |
| FC San Jacinto (W) | 5-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Montevideo City Torque (W) | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 8 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Nacional De Football (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montevideo Wanderers (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Canadian SC (W) Uruguay League Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | FC San Jacinto (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/11 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 09/11 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Nacional De Football (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | FC San Jacinto (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 8-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 10-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Canadian SC (W) Uruguay League Women |
2-0 | 8-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/11 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 15/11 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montevideo Wanderers (W) vs Nacional De Football (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Nacional De Football (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Montevideo Wanderers (W) 7%, draw 11%, Nacional De Football (W) 82%.
How many goals are expected in Montevideo Wanderers (W) vs Nacional De Football (W)?
The model expects 4.26 goals (Montevideo Wanderers (W) 1.13 · Nacional De Football (W) 3.13), with a 57% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Montevideo Wanderers (W) vs Nacional De Football (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.