Football · Austria League 1 Women · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: FC Salzburg (W) vs SK Sturm Graz (W)

Team pages: FC Salzburg (W) · SK Sturm Graz (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

FC Salzburg (W)1.37

SK Sturm Graz (W)2.01

1X2

25% 23% 52%

FC Salzburg (W) Draw SK Sturm Graz (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Salzburg (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWWWW

SK Sturm Graz (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWLDWW

Head-to-head

FC Salzburg (W) 0–2–3 SK Sturm Graz (W) (5 last)

SK Sturm Graz (W)2-0FC Salzburg (W)
SK Sturm Graz (W)2-2FC Salzburg (W)
FC Salzburg (W)0-1SK Sturm Graz (W)
SK Sturm Graz (W)5-5FC Salzburg (W)
FC Salzburg (W)0-1SK Sturm Graz (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Salzburg (W) 1521 · SK Sturm Graz (W) 1563

	FC Salzburg (W)	Draw	SK Sturm Graz (W)
Our model	25%	23%	51%
Market	26%	22%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Sturm Graz (W) (rating 1521 vs 1563).
H2H favours SK Sturm Graz (W): 3-2-0.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Salzburg (W)	SK Sturm Graz (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	2.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	1.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 7.2	3.6 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.00

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:21 +17’	3.50	4.00	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Salzburg (W) 0–2–3 SK Sturm Graz (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Austria League 1 Women	SK Sturm Graz (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Salzburg (W)
29/05/26 Austria League 1 Women	SK Sturm Graz (W)	2-2 HT 0-0	FC Salzburg (W)
25/04/26 Austria League 1 Women	FC Salzburg (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	SK Sturm Graz (W)
21/02/26 Austria League 1 Women	SK Sturm Graz (W)	5-5 HT 3-1	FC Salzburg (W)
21/09/25 Austria League 1 Women	FC Salzburg (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	SK Sturm Graz (W)

Standings · Austria League 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Sturm Graz (W)	11	8	2	1	29	8	26
2	SKN St Polten (W)	10	8	1	1	31	7	25
3	FK Austria Vienna (W)	10	7	2	1	29	3	23
4	FC Salzburg (W)	11	6	1	4	16	15	19
5	SCR Altach (W)	10	5	2	3	20	16	17
6	LASK Linz (W)	11	3	2	6	12	20	11
7	First Vienna FC 1894 (W)	11	1	6	4	14	22	9
8	Rapid Vienna (W)	10	1	4	5	9	22	7
9	FC Sudburgenland/TSV Hartberg (W)	11	1	3	7	7	28	6
10	Kleinmunchen/Blau-Weiss Linz (W)	11	1	1	9	5	31	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Salzburg (W)	SK Sturm Graz (W)
Kleinmunchen/Blau-Weiss Linz (W)	4-0 W	4-0 W
FC Sudburgenland/TSV Hartberg (W)	3-0 W	3-1 W
First Vienna FC 1894 (W)	3-1 W	1-1 D
Rapid Vienna (W)	1-0 W	2-0 W
LASK Linz (W)	0-0 D	5-0 W
SCR Altach (W)	1-3 L	2-0 W
SKN St Polten (W)	0-2 L	2-2 D
FK Austria Vienna (W)	0-7 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SK Sturm Graz (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Salzburg (W)

WLLLLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Kleinmunchen/Blau-Weiss Linz (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-0	4-0	11	1	W
17/10	FC Sudburgenland/TSV Hartberg (W) Austria League 1 Women	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
03/10	First Vienna FC 1894 (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
26/09	Rapid Vienna (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/09	LASK Linz (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	SCR Altach (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-3	1-3	13	1	L
29/08	SKN St Polten (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
21/08	FK Austria Vienna (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-5	0-7	–	–	L
16/08	SK Sturm Graz (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
08/08	Kleinmunchen/Blau-Weiss Linz (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

SK Sturm Graz (W)

WWDWWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	LASK Linz (W) Austria League 1 Women	5-0	5-0	7	2	W
18/10	SCR Altach (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
04/10	SKN St Polten (W) Austria League 1 Women	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
27/09	FK Austria Vienna (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-0	0-2	1	1	L
18/09	Rapid Vienna (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-0	2-0	9	0	W
13/09	Kleinmunchen/Blau-Weiss Linz (W) Austria League 1 Women	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC Sudburgenland/TSV Hartberg (W) Austria League 1 Women	3-0	3-1	2	3	W
21/08	First Vienna FC 1894 (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-0	1-1	12	3	D
16/08	FC Salzburg (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
07/08	LASK Linz (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-0	2-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Salzburg (W) vs SK Sturm Graz (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SK Sturm Graz (W) win (52%). Probabilities: FC Salzburg (W) 25%, draw 23%, SK Sturm Graz (W) 52%.

How many goals are expected in FC Salzburg (W) vs SK Sturm Graz (W)?

The model expects 3.38 goals (FC Salzburg (W) 1.37 · SK Sturm Graz (W) 2.01), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Salzburg (W) vs SK Sturm Graz (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.