Football · Malta Premier League · 18/09, 18:00
Prediction: Saint Patrick FC Zabbar vs Birkirkara
Team pages: Saint Patrick FC Zabbar · Birkirkara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.21Total
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0.79
Birkirkara1.42
1X2
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
Draw
Birkirkara
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Birkirkara
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
1–5
Birkirkara
(6 last)
- Birkirkara2-1Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
- Birkirkara1-0Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
- Birkirkara2-1Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
- Birkirkara0-3Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
- Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0-2Birkirkara
- Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0-3Birkirkara
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 1476 · Birkirkara 1502
| Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | Draw | Birkirkara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 30% | 51% |
| Market | 22% | 26% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Birkirkara: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | Birkirkara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.7 | 2.2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.4 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 1–0–5 Birkirkara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 Europe Friendlies | Birkirkara | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
| 11/04/26 Malta Premier League | Birkirkara | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
| 04/03/26 Malta FA Trophy | Birkirkara | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
| 21/02/26 Malta Premier League | Birkirkara | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
| 03/10/25 Malta Premier League | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Birkirkara |
| 23/02/25 Malta Premier League | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Birkirkara |
Standings · Malta Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marsaxlokk FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 11 |
| 2 | Valletta | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Floriana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Mosta FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Sliema Wanderers | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 6 | Balzan FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Birkirkara | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Hamrun Spartans | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Hibernians | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | Birkirkara |
|---|---|---|
| Gzira United | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| Hamrun Spartans | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Hibernians | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Tarxien Rainbows FC | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Sliema Wanderers | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Birkirkara (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Birzebbuga Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 05/05 | Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 30/04 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 19/04 | Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
Birkirkara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/08 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 30/04 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 24/04 | Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 14/04 | Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Saint Patrick FC Zabbar vs Birkirkara?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Birkirkara win (52%). Probabilities: Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 21%, draw 27%, Birkirkara 52%.
How many goals are expected in Saint Patrick FC Zabbar vs Birkirkara?
The model expects 2.21 goals (Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 0.79 · Birkirkara 1.42), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Saint Patrick FC Zabbar vs Birkirkara?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.