Football · Malta Premier League · 18/09, 20:30
Prediction: Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk FC
Team pages: Hamrun Spartans · Marsaxlokk FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Hamrun Spartans1.52
Marsaxlokk FC1.09
1X2
Hamrun Spartans
Draw
Marsaxlokk FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Hamrun Spartans
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Marsaxlokk FC
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hamrun Spartans
3–1–2
Marsaxlokk FC
(6 last)
- Marsaxlokk FC1-1Hamrun Spartans
- Marsaxlokk FC3-2Hamrun Spartans
- Hamrun Spartans2-0Marsaxlokk FC
- Hamrun Spartans1-3Marsaxlokk FC
- Marsaxlokk FC0-2Hamrun Spartans
- Marsaxlokk FC0-1Hamrun Spartans
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hamrun Spartans 1526 · Marsaxlokk FC 1520
| Hamrun Spartans | Draw | Marsaxlokk FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 25% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Hamrun Spartans: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamrun Spartans | Marsaxlokk FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 6.9 | 3.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamrun Spartans 3–1–2 Marsaxlokk FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Hamrun Spartans |
| 11/04/26 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Hamrun Spartans |
| 23/02/26 Malta Premier League | Hamrun Spartans | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Marsaxlokk FC |
| 14/12/25 Malta Premier League | Hamrun Spartans | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Marsaxlokk FC |
| 23/09/25 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Hamrun Spartans |
| 30/04/25 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Hamrun Spartans |
Standings · Malta Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marsaxlokk FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 11 |
| 2 | Valletta | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Floriana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Mosta FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Sliema Wanderers | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 6 | Balzan FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Birkirkara | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Hamrun Spartans | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Hibernians | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hamrun Spartans | Marsaxlokk FC |
|---|---|---|
| Floriana | 1-1 D | 5-2 W |
| Mosta FC | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Valletta | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Naxxar Lions | 3-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamrun Spartans
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Birzebbuga Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Birkirkara Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 17/08 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Marsaxlokk FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
3-1 | 5-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 28/08 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 21/08 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | Balzan FC Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hamrun Spartans win (47%). Probabilities: Hamrun Spartans 47%, draw 26%, Marsaxlokk FC 27%.
How many goals are expected in Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk FC?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Hamrun Spartans 1.52 · Marsaxlokk FC 1.09), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.