Football · Malta Premier League · 14/08, 20:30
Prediction: Balzan FC vs Marsaxlokk FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Balzan FC1.13
Marsaxlokk FC1.19
1X2
Balzan FC
Draw
Marsaxlokk FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Balzan FC
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Marsaxlokk FC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Balzan FC
1–2–3
Marsaxlokk FC
(6 last)
- Marsaxlokk FC1-1Balzan FC
- Balzan FC0-3Marsaxlokk FC
- Marsaxlokk FC2-1Balzan FC
- Marsaxlokk FC2-1Balzan FC
- Marsaxlokk FC0-1Balzan FC
- Balzan FC0-0Marsaxlokk FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Balzan FC 1550 · Marsaxlokk FC 1457
| Balzan FC | Draw | Marsaxlokk FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Balzan FC (rating 1550 vs 1457).
- H2H favours Marsaxlokk FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Balzan FC | Marsaxlokk FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 44/33/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Balzan FC 1–2–3 Marsaxlokk FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/25 Malta Jubilee Cup | Marsaxlokk FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Balzan FC |
| 31/01/25 Malta Premier League | Balzan FC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Marsaxlokk FC |
| 24/11/24 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Balzan FC |
| 28/09/24 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Balzan FC |
| 03/05/24 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Balzan FC |
| 21/01/24 Malta Premier League | Balzan FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Marsaxlokk FC |
Standings · Malta Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Balzan FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Birkirkara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Birzebbuga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Floriana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gzira United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hamrun Spartans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hibernians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Marsaxlokk FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mosta FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sliema Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Valletta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Balzan FC | Marsaxlokk FC |
|---|---|---|
| Gzira United | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Valletta | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Balzan FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Mosta FC Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 24/07 | Birzebbuga Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 17/07 | Gzira United Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Valletta Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 19/04 | Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League |
0-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 06/04 | Sirens Malta Challenge League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 14/03 | Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 10/03 | Fgura United Malta Challenge League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 28/02 | Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Marsaxlokk FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Gzira United Europe Friendlies |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 16/07 | Pyunik Yerevan UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 09/07 | Pyunik Yerevan UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/04 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Balzan FC vs Marsaxlokk FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Marsaxlokk FC win (37%). Probabilities: Balzan FC 34%, draw 29%, Marsaxlokk FC 37%.
How many goals are expected in Balzan FC vs Marsaxlokk FC?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Balzan FC 1.13 · Marsaxlokk FC 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Balzan FC vs Marsaxlokk FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.