Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Classic · 03/10, 16:30
Prediction: FC Mendrisio vs FC Tuggen
Team pages: FC Mendrisio · FC Tuggen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
FC Mendrisio1.26
FC Tuggen1.58
1X2
FC Mendrisio
Draw
FC Tuggen
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Mendrisio
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
FC Tuggen
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Mendrisio
3–2
FC Tuggen
(5 last)
- FC Mendrisio1-0FC Tuggen
- FC Tuggen1-0FC Mendrisio
- FC Mendrisio1-0FC Tuggen
- FC Mendrisio2-0FC Tuggen
- FC Tuggen2-1FC Mendrisio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Mendrisio 1477 · FC Tuggen 1534
| FC Mendrisio | Draw | FC Tuggen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Tuggen (rating 1477 vs 1534).
- H2H favours FC Mendrisio: 3-0-2.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Mendrisio | FC Tuggen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 2.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 17/50/33% | 0/100/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.8 | 3 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.2 | 6 / 1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Mendrisio 3–0–2 FC Tuggen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Classic | FC Mendrisio | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Tuggen |
| 15/11/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Classic | FC Tuggen | 1-0 | FC Mendrisio |
| 29/03/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Classic | FC Mendrisio | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Tuggen |
| 23/08/23 Switzerland 1.Liga Classic | FC Mendrisio | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Tuggen |
| 17/04/19 Switzerland 1.Liga Classic | FC Tuggen | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Mendrisio |
Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Classic · 1. Liga Classic 26/27, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tuggen | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | FC Baden | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 16 |
| 3 | St Gallen II | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Thalwil | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | AC Taverne | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Kosova | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| 7 | FC Dietikon | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| 8 | FC Collina d'Oro | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 11 |
| 9 | Winterthur II | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| 10 | FC Freienbach | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
| 11 | Gossau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 8 |
| 12 | USV Eschen-Mauren | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 7 |
| 13 | FC Mendrisio | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 14 | Locarno | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| 15 | FC Wettswil-Bonstetten | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Widnau | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Mendrisio | FC Tuggen |
|---|---|---|
| FC Widnau | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| FC Kosova | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| AC Taverne | 1-1 D | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Tuggen (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Mendrisio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | FC Wettswil-Bonstetten Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 20/09 | St Gallen II Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | USV Eschen-Mauren Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 06/09 | FC Freienbach Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 29/08 | Winterthur II Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | FC Collina d'Oro Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | FC Widnau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 08/08 | FC Kosova Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | AC Taverne Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 23/05 | FC Tuggen Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
FC Tuggen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | FC Kosova Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 19/09 | FC Thalwil Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | FC Baden Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | Gossau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | AC Taverne Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | Locarno Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/08 | FC Dietikon Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | FC Widnau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | FC Langenthal Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
1-1 | 1-5 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 03/06 | FC Langenthal Switzerland 1.Liga Classic |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Mendrisio vs FC Tuggen?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Tuggen win (44%). Probabilities: FC Mendrisio 30%, draw 25%, FC Tuggen 44%.
How many goals are expected in FC Mendrisio vs FC Tuggen?
The model expects 2.84 goals (FC Mendrisio 1.26 · FC Tuggen 1.58), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Mendrisio vs FC Tuggen?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.