Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Classic · 24/10, 16:30

Prediction: FC Mendrisio vs Locarno

Team pages: FC Mendrisio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

FC Mendrisio1.47

Locarno1.19

1X2

43% 26% 30%

FC Mendrisio Draw Locarno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Mendrisio 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLWLLDDL

Locarno 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDLWDW

Head-to-head

FC Mendrisio 0–1 Locarno (1 last)

FC Mendrisio1-2Locarno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Mendrisio 1464 · Locarno 1492

	FC Mendrisio	Draw	Locarno
Our model	42%	28%	29%
Market	44%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Mendrisio	Locarno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.10 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:15 +14’	2.05	3.60	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +72’	2.10	3.45	2.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Mendrisio 0–0–1 Locarno

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/07/17 Europe Friendlies	FC Mendrisio	1-2 HT 0-2	Locarno

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Classic · 1. Liga Classic 26/27, Group C

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Gallen II	10	7	1	2	21	16	22
2	FC Tuggen	10	6	3	1	23	12	21
3	AC Taverne	10	6	2	2	26	13	20
4	FC Thalwil	10	4	4	2	16	11	16
5	FC Baden	10	5	1	4	21	17	16
6	FC Kosova	10	4	4	2	15	12	16
7	FC Collina d'Oro	10	4	3	3	11	12	15
8	FC Dietikon	10	4	2	4	14	14	14
9	Gossau	10	4	2	4	15	19	14
10	USV Eschen-Mauren	10	3	3	4	16	19	12
11	Locarno	10	2	4	4	12	13	10
12	FC Freienbach	10	2	4	4	11	15	10
13	FC Wettswil-Bonstetten	10	2	3	5	12	15	9
14	Winterthur II	10	3	0	7	10	18	9
15	FC Mendrisio	10	1	5	4	11	15	8
16	FC Widnau	10	1	3	6	8	21	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Mendrisio	Locarno
FC Dietikon	0-2 L	2-2 D
FC Tuggen	1-1 D	1-2 L
FC Wettswil-Bonstetten	1-1 D	1-2 L
St Gallen II	1-3 L	2-3 L
FC Widnau	1-1 D	0-0 D
FC Kosova	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Locarno (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Mendrisio

DDDLWLLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Dietikon Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/10	FC Tuggen Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
26/09	FC Wettswil-Bonstetten Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	St Gallen II Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
12/09	USV Eschen-Mauren Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	3-4	–	–	L
06/09	FC Freienbach Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
29/08	Winterthur II Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	FC Collina d'Oro Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
16/08	FC Widnau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	FC Kosova Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	0-0	–	–	D

Locarno

LLLDDDLWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Kosova Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	FC Thalwil Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	FC Baden Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	Gossau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	AC Taverne Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
05/09	FC Widnau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
29/08	FC Dietikon Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	FC Tuggen Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	FC Wettswil-Bonstetten Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	St Gallen II Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-3	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Mendrisio vs Locarno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Mendrisio win (43%). Probabilities: FC Mendrisio 43%, draw 26%, Locarno 30%.

How many goals are expected in FC Mendrisio vs Locarno?

The model expects 2.67 goals (FC Mendrisio 1.47 · Locarno 1.19), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Mendrisio vs Locarno?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.