Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · 04/10, 12:00
Prediction: RSD Alcala vs Navalcarnero
Team pages: Navalcarnero
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
RSD Alcala1.45
Navalcarnero1.07
1X2
RSD Alcala
Draw
Navalcarnero
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
RSD Alcala
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Navalcarnero
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
RSD Alcala
2–1–3
Navalcarnero
(6 last)
- RSD Alcala1-0Navalcarnero
- Navalcarnero3-1RSD Alcala
- Navalcarnero1-0RSD Alcala
- Navalcarnero1-1RSD Alcala
- Navalcarnero0-1RSD Alcala
- RSD Alcala0-1Navalcarnero
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · RSD Alcala 1549 · Navalcarnero 1528
| RSD Alcala | Draw | Navalcarnero | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Navalcarnero: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| RSD Alcala | Navalcarnero | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.4 | 1.4 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.4 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · RSD Alcala 2–1–3 Navalcarnero
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 | RSD Alcala | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Navalcarnero |
| 07/12/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 | Navalcarnero | 3-1 HT 1-1 | RSD Alcala |
| 09/08/25 Europe Friendlies | Navalcarnero | 1-0 HT 1-0 | RSD Alcala |
| 18/07/20 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs | Navalcarnero | 1-1 HT 0-0 | RSD Alcala |
| 12/01/20 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Navalcarnero | 0-1 HT 0-0 | RSD Alcala |
| 25/08/19 Spain Tercera Group 7 | RSD Alcala | 0-1 | Navalcarnero |
Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 5
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Numancia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Conquense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Salamanca CF UDS | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid C | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | UD San Sebastian Reyes | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Valladolid Promesas | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | RSD Alcala | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Gimnastica Segoviana | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 9 | Real Avila | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | CF Talavera | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| 11 | Albacete B | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 5 |
| 12 | Navalcarnero | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Calvo Sotelo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | CD Guadalajara | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | Getafe B | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Real Madrid C | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 17 | CD Atletico Paso | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Atletico Tordesillas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | RSD Alcala | Navalcarnero |
|---|---|---|
| CD Coria | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| CD Quintanar del Rey | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Fuenlabrada | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Rayo Majadahonda | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: RSD Alcala (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
RSD Alcala
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Salamanca CF UDS Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 20/09 | Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
2-2 | 5-2 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 13/09 | CD Guadalajara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | CF Talavera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | CD Coria Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 10 | L |
| 26/04 | CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Rayo Vallecano B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Fuenlabrada Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/04 | Las Palmas B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/03 | Rayo Majadahonda Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
Navalcarnero
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Conquense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Atletico Tordesillas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Real Avila Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Valladolid Promesas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Fuenlabrada Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Conquense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 12/04 | CD Coria Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 05/04 | Rayo Majadahonda Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/03 | CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in RSD Alcala vs Navalcarnero?
According to our model, the most likely result is a RSD Alcala win (45%). Probabilities: RSD Alcala 45%, draw 28%, Navalcarnero 27%.
How many goals are expected in RSD Alcala vs Navalcarnero?
The model expects 2.52 goals (RSD Alcala 1.45 · Navalcarnero 1.07), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in RSD Alcala vs Navalcarnero?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.