Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · 27/09, 18:00
Prediction: Navalcarnero vs Conquense
Team pages: Navalcarnero · Conquense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.26Total
Navalcarnero1.14
Conquense1.12
1X2
Navalcarnero
Draw
Conquense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Navalcarnero
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Conquense
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Navalcarnero
2–1–1
Conquense
(4 last)
- Navalcarnero2-0Conquense
- Conquense1-1Navalcarnero
- Navalcarnero2-0Conquense
- Conquense1-0Navalcarnero
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Navalcarnero 1541 · Conquense 1516
| Navalcarnero | Draw | Conquense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Navalcarnero: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Navalcarnero | Conquense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 2.8 | 1.8 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.4 | 4.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Navalcarnero 2–1–1 Conquense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 | Navalcarnero | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Conquense |
| 19/10/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 | Conquense | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Navalcarnero |
| 09/02/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 | Navalcarnero | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Conquense |
| 29/09/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 | Conquense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Navalcarnero |
Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 5
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Numancia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | UD San Sebastian Reyes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Conquense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | RSD Alcala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Valladolid Promesas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Salamanca CF UDS | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid C | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Navalcarnero | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Albacete B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| 10 | CD Guadalajara | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Gimnastica Segoviana | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 12 | Real Avila | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Getafe B | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 15 | CF Talavera | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Atletico Tordesillas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| 17 | CD Atletico Paso | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Calvo Sotelo | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Navalcarnero
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Atletico Tordesillas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Real Avila Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Valladolid Promesas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Fuenlabrada Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Conquense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 12/04 | CD Coria Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 05/04 | Rayo Majadahonda Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/03 | CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 22/03 | RSD Alcala Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
Conquense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Salamanca CF UDS Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Getafe B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Tenerife B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | Socuéllamos Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/04 | Orihuela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 28/03 | Elche Ilicitano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | UD San Sebastian Reyes Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Navalcarnero vs Conquense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Navalcarnero win (35%). Probabilities: Navalcarnero 35%, draw 31%, Conquense 34%.
How many goals are expected in Navalcarnero vs Conquense?
The model expects 2.26 goals (Navalcarnero 1.14 · Conquense 1.12), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Navalcarnero vs Conquense?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.