Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 15/11, 16:45

Prediction: PEC Zwolle (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)

Team pages: PEC Zwolle (W) · FC Utrecht (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

PEC Zwolle (W)2.03

FC Utrecht (W)0.97

1X2

61% 22% 17%

PEC Zwolle (W) Draw FC Utrecht (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

PEC Zwolle (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Utrecht (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

PEC Zwolle (W) 1–1–4 FC Utrecht (W) (6 last)

FC Utrecht (W)3-4PEC Zwolle (W)
FC Utrecht (W)3-0PEC Zwolle (W)
PEC Zwolle (W)1-2FC Utrecht (W)
FC Utrecht (W)0-0PEC Zwolle (W)
PEC Zwolle (W)0-4FC Utrecht (W)
FC Utrecht (W)5-0PEC Zwolle (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PEC Zwolle (W) 1480 · FC Utrecht (W) 1428

	PEC Zwolle (W)	Draw	FC Utrecht (W)
Our model	61%	23%	16%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PEC Zwolle (W) (rating 1480 vs 1428).
H2H favours FC Utrecht (W): 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PEC Zwolle (W)	FC Utrecht (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +10’	1.45	4.20	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PEC Zwolle (W) 1–1–4 FC Utrecht (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Utrecht (W)	3-4 HT 0-3	PEC Zwolle (W)
05/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Utrecht (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	PEC Zwolle (W)
07/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	PEC Zwolle (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht (W)
17/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Utrecht (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	PEC Zwolle (W)
05/10/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	PEC Zwolle (W)	0-4 HT 0-2	FC Utrecht (W)
05/09/24 Women’s Friendly	FC Utrecht (W)	5-0 HT 2-0	PEC Zwolle (W)

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Twente (W)	9	7	1	1	30	6	22
2	Ajax (W)	9	7	0	2	23	10	21
3	PSV (W)	9	6	1	2	26	11	19
4	De Graafschap (W)	9	5	0	4	13	13	15
5	VV Alkmaar (W)	9	4	0	5	9	19	12
6	PEC Zwolle (W)	9	3	2	4	16	18	11
7	Heerenveen (W)	9	3	2	4	14	18	11
8	Feyenoord (W)	9	3	0	6	10	21	9
9	ADO Den Haag (W)	9	2	1	6	12	27	7
10	FC Utrecht (W)	9	1	1	7	6	16	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PEC Zwolle (W)	FC Utrecht (W)
VV Alkmaar (W)	2-0 W	0-1 L
FC Twente (W)	1-1 D	0-2 L
Heerenveen (W)	2-2 D	0-2 L
Feyenoord (W)	3-2 W	0-3 L
De Graafschap (W)	2-3 L	1-2 L
ADO Den Haag (W)	2-4 L	1-0 W
Ajax (W)	0-1 L	0-1 L
PSV (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: PEC Zwolle (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PEC Zwolle (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/10	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
04/10	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	2-2	9	2	D
26/09	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-2	3-2	3	6	W
20/09	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	2-3	2	0	L
13/09	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-0	4-3	6	2	W
06/09	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-2	2-4	6	2	L
22/08	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
16/08	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
22/05	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-3	0-3	5	2	L

FC Utrecht (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-1	1-2	6	0	L
25/10	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
04/10	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
27/09	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-2	0-2	3	1	L
19/09	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-3	1	0	L
13/09	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-3	3-4	7	2	L
06/09	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
22/08	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
16/08	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
22/05	HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	2-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PEC Zwolle (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PEC Zwolle (W) win (61%). Probabilities: PEC Zwolle (W) 61%, draw 22%, FC Utrecht (W) 17%.

How many goals are expected in PEC Zwolle (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)?

The model expects 2.99 goals (PEC Zwolle (W) 2.03 · FC Utrecht (W) 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.