Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 15/11, 16:45

Prediction: VV Alkmaar (W) vs Ajax (W)

Team pages: VV Alkmaar (W) · Ajax (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

VV Alkmaar (W)0.93

Ajax (W)2.49

1X2

12% 17% 71%

VV Alkmaar (W) Draw Ajax (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

VV Alkmaar (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Ajax (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

VV Alkmaar (W) 1–1–4 Ajax (W) (6 last)

Ajax (W)5-1VV Alkmaar (W)
Ajax (W)3-1VV Alkmaar (W)
Ajax (W)1-2VV Alkmaar (W)
VV Alkmaar (W)0-0Ajax (W)
Ajax (W)4-2VV Alkmaar (W)
VV Alkmaar (W)1-2Ajax (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VV Alkmaar (W) 1483 · Ajax (W) 1580

	VV Alkmaar (W)	Draw	Ajax (W)
Our model	11%	18%	71%
Market	12%	17%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (W) (rating 1483 vs 1580).
H2H favours Ajax (W): 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VV Alkmaar (W)	Ajax (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	2.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 4.8	3.3 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	1.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

17.50

X5.25

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.85

2 (-1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:53 +23’	7.50	5.25	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VV Alkmaar (W) 1–1–4 Ajax (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Ajax (W)	5-1 HT 3-0	VV Alkmaar (W)
08/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Ajax (W)	3-1 HT 0-0	VV Alkmaar (W)
12/12/25 Netherlands Cup Women	Ajax (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	VV Alkmaar (W)
28/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	VV Alkmaar (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Ajax (W)
19/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Ajax (W)	4-2 HT 4-0	VV Alkmaar (W)
06/10/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	VV Alkmaar (W)	1-2 HT 1-2	Ajax (W)

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Twente (W)	9	7	1	1	30	6	22
2	Ajax (W)	9	7	0	2	23	10	21
3	PSV (W)	9	6	1	2	26	11	19
4	De Graafschap (W)	9	5	0	4	13	13	15
5	VV Alkmaar (W)	9	4	0	5	9	19	12
6	PEC Zwolle (W)	9	3	2	4	16	18	11
7	Heerenveen (W)	9	3	2	4	14	18	11
8	Feyenoord (W)	9	3	0	6	10	21	9
9	ADO Den Haag (W)	9	2	1	6	12	27	7
10	FC Utrecht (W)	9	1	1	7	6	16	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VV Alkmaar (W)	Ajax (W)
PEC Zwolle (W)	0-2 L	1-0 W
Heerenveen (W)	0-1 L	1-3 L
De Graafschap (W)	0-3 L	1-0 W
FC Twente (W)	0-5 L	2-0 W
PSV (W)	3-1 W	1-4 L
FC Utrecht (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Feyenoord (W)	2-1 W	4-1 W
ADO Den Haag (W)	2-1 W	7-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	6 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ajax (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VV Alkmaar (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-2	6	1	L
25/10	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
04/10	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-3	13	0	L
27/09	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-5	0	1	L
19/09	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-3	1-5	0	2	L
13/09	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	3-1	0	2	W
06/09	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/08	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
16/08	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	2-1	2	0	W
22/05	Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-0	5	5	W

Ajax (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
18/10	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-3	1-4	7	2	L
04/10	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	4-1	3	3	W
26/09	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-1	7-1	8	1	W
19/09	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-0	5-1	8	2	W
13/09	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	1-3	11	1	L
06/09	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
22/08	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
16/08	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
22/05	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	3-1	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VV Alkmaar (W) vs Ajax (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ajax (W) win (71%). Probabilities: VV Alkmaar (W) 12%, draw 17%, Ajax (W) 71%.

How many goals are expected in VV Alkmaar (W) vs Ajax (W)?

The model expects 3.42 goals (VV Alkmaar (W) 0.93 · Ajax (W) 2.49), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in VV Alkmaar (W) vs Ajax (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.