Football · Malta Premier League · 14/08, 18:00
Prediction: Birzebbuga vs Floriana
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Birzebbuga1.14
Floriana1.7
1X2
Birzebbuga
Draw
Floriana
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Birzebbuga
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Floriana
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Birzebbuga
0–2
Floriana
(2 last)
- Floriana2-1Birzebbuga
- Floriana5-0Birzebbuga
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Birzebbuga 1571 · Floriana 1535
| Birzebbuga | Draw | Floriana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 26% | 49% |
| Market | 25% | 25% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Floriana: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birzebbuga | Floriana | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.2 | 1.7 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Birzebbuga 0–0–2 Floriana
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/25 Malta Jubilee Cup | Floriana | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Birzebbuga |
| 13/12/16 Malta FA Trophy | Floriana | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Birzebbuga |
Standings · Malta Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Balzan FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Birkirkara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Birzebbuga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Floriana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gzira United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hamrun Spartans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hibernians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Marsaxlokk FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mosta FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sliema Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Valletta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birzebbuga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Balzan FC Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/07 | Mosta FC Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 03/05 | Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 23/04 | Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 9 | D |
| 19/04 | Sirens Malta Challenge League |
1-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | Balzan FC Malta Challenge League |
1-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | St Andrews Malta Challenge League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 14/03 | Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 08/03 | Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/03 | Marsa FC Malta Challenge League Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
Floriana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | KF Drita UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 12 | D |
| 21/07 | KF Drita UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/07 | Shamrock Rovers UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 07/07 | Shamrock Rovers UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 30/04 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 15/04 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Birzebbuga vs Floriana?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Floriana win (50%). Probabilities: Birzebbuga 25%, draw 26%, Floriana 50%.
How many goals are expected in Birzebbuga vs Floriana?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Birzebbuga 1.14 · Floriana 1.7), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Birzebbuga vs Floriana?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.