Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 15/08, 11:00
Prediction: MFK Chrudim vs Varnsdorf
Team pages: MFK Chrudim · Varnsdorf
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.6Total
MFK Chrudim1.67
Varnsdorf1.93
1X2
MFK Chrudim
Draw
Varnsdorf
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
MFK Chrudim
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Varnsdorf
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
MFK Chrudim
4–2–0
Varnsdorf
(6 last)
- MFK Chrudim2-1Varnsdorf
- Varnsdorf0-3MFK Chrudim
- Varnsdorf1-4MFK Chrudim
- MFK Chrudim1-1Varnsdorf
- MFK Chrudim1-0Varnsdorf
- Varnsdorf3-3MFK Chrudim
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · MFK Chrudim 1465 · Varnsdorf 1532
| MFK Chrudim | Draw | Varnsdorf | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | 32% | 25% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varnsdorf (rating 1465 vs 1532).
- H2H favours MFK Chrudim: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MFK Chrudim | Varnsdorf | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.9 | 2.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5 | 2.8 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MFK Chrudim 4–2–0 Varnsdorf
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/25 Czechia 2. Liga | MFK Chrudim | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Varnsdorf |
| 18/09/24 Czechia 2. Liga | Varnsdorf | 0-3 HT 0-1 | MFK Chrudim |
| 29/06/24 Europe Friendlies | Varnsdorf | 1-4 HT 0-3 | MFK Chrudim |
| 17/04/24 Czechia 2. Liga | MFK Chrudim | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Varnsdorf |
| 27/01/24 Czechia Tipsport Liga | MFK Chrudim | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Varnsdorf |
| 17/09/23 Czechia 2. Liga | Varnsdorf | 3-3 HT 1-1 | MFK Chrudim |
Standings · Czechia 3. Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TJ Unie Hlubina | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Sigma Olomouc B | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | SK Artis Brno B | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | SK Unicov | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | FC Trinity Zlin B | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Frydek Mistek | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Slovacko II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | CSK Uhersky Brod | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | MFK Karvina B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | FK Blansko | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| 11 | MFK Havirov | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | FK Hodonin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 13 | MFK Vitkovice | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 13 | SFK Vrchovina | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 15 | FC Brno II | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| 16 | Polanka | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | SK Hranice | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | FC Vsetin | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MFK Chrudim
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | FK Horni Redice Czechia Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga |
1-5 | 1-6 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | SK Artis Brno Czechia 2. Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Ceske Budejovice Czechia 2. Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 12/05 | FK Pribram Czechia 2. Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | FC Silon Taborsko Czechia 2. Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Sparta Prague B Czechia 2. Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz Czechia 2. Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 18/04 | FC Sellier & Bellot Vlasim Czechia 2. Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 15/04 | FK Usti nad Labem Czechia 2. Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | L |
Varnsdorf
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | FK Brandys nad Labem Czechia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | Benatky Nad Jizerou Czechia 3. Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | SK Steti Czechia Cup |
3-0 | 6-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 08/07 | Arsenal Ceska Lipa Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Hradec Kralove B Czechia 3. Liga |
4-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Arsenal Ceska Lipa Czechia 3. Liga |
0-1 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/05 | SK Sparta Kolin Czechia 3. Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga |
1-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in MFK Chrudim vs Varnsdorf?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Varnsdorf win (43%). Probabilities: MFK Chrudim 32%, draw 24%, Varnsdorf 43%.
How many goals are expected in MFK Chrudim vs Varnsdorf?
The model expects 3.6 goals (MFK Chrudim 1.67 · Varnsdorf 1.93), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in MFK Chrudim vs Varnsdorf?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.