Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 06/09, 17:00

Prediction: Varnsdorf vs Velke Hamry

Team pages: Varnsdorf · Velke Hamry

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Varnsdorf2.49

Velke Hamry0.98

1X2

69% 19% 12%

Varnsdorf Draw Velke Hamry

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Varnsdorf 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLWWLW

Velke Hamry 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Varnsdorf 2–1 Velke Hamry (3 last)

Velke Hamry0-2Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf1-5Velke Hamry
Velke Hamry0-4Varnsdorf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varnsdorf 1544 · Velke Hamry 1391

	Varnsdorf	Draw	Velke Hamry
Our model	69%	18%	12%
Market	69%	19%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varnsdorf (rating 1544 vs 1391).
H2H favours Varnsdorf: 2-0-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Varnsdorf	Velke Hamry
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.6	0.7 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.9	4.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.75

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.30▼	Bet365 1.30
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.00 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:55 +5’	1.36	4.75	6.00
00:15 +4’	1.30▼	4.75	7.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Varnsdorf 2–0–1 Velke Hamry

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Czechia 3. Liga	Velke Hamry	0-2 HT 0-1	Varnsdorf
05/10/25 Czechia 3. Liga	Varnsdorf	1-5 HT 0-4	Velke Hamry
14/08/19 Czechia Cup	Velke Hamry	0-4 HT 0-1	Varnsdorf

Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Artis Brno B	6	5	1	0	11	0	16
2	Frydek Mistek	6	4	1	1	11	5	13
3	FC Brno II	6	4	1	1	16	13	13
4	TJ Unie Hlubina	6	4	0	2	21	13	12
5	Sigma Olomouc B	6	4	0	2	13	6	12
6	SK Unicov	6	4	0	2	11	8	12
7	Slovacko II	6	3	2	1	12	7	11
8	CSK Uhersky Brod	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
9	SFK Vrchovina	6	3	1	2	6	8	10
10	FC Trinity Zlin B	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
11	MFK Vitkovice	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
12	MFK Karvina B	6	2	1	3	8	10	7
13	SK Hranice	6	2	0	4	8	7	6
14	FK Hodonin	6	1	2	3	7	10	5
15	FK Blansko	6	0	3	3	8	17	3
16	Polanka	6	0	2	4	3	7	2
17	MFK Havirov	6	0	2	4	4	15	2
18	FC Vsetin	6	0	0	6	4	20	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Varnsdorf	Velke Hamry
Benatky Nad Jizerou	1-0 W	0-2 L
Mladá Boleslav B	2-0 W	0-3 L
FK Jablonec B	3-3 D	0-6 L
Slovan Liberec B	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Varnsdorf (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Varnsdorf

WLDWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
15/08	MFK Chrudim Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	1-3	10	2	L
09/08	Benatky Nad Jizerou Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
07/06	Hradec Kralove B Czechia 3. Liga	4-0	5-0	4	1	W
30/05	Arsenal Ceska Lipa Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
24/05	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
20/05	SK Sparta Kolin Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
17/05	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	3-3	6	4	D
10/05	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
06/05	Slovan Velvary Czechia 3. Liga	3-2	4-3	4	10	W

Velke Hamry

LDLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	0-3	11	2	L
23/08	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-6	–	–	L
15/08	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	13	7	L
06/06	SK Sokol Brozany Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
30/05	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
24/05	Pardubice B Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	1-4	1	4	L
20/05	Benatky Nad Jizerou Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
16/05	Usti N Orlici Czechia 3. Liga	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
10/05	FK Teplice B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varnsdorf vs Velke Hamry?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varnsdorf win (69%). Probabilities: Varnsdorf 69%, draw 19%, Velke Hamry 12%.

How many goals are expected in Varnsdorf vs Velke Hamry?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Varnsdorf 2.49 · Velke Hamry 0.98), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Varnsdorf vs Velke Hamry?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.