Football · Austria 2. Liga · 22/08, 17:30
Prediction: SW Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II
Team pages: SW Bregenz · Sturm Graz II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
SW Bregenz1.86
Sturm Graz II1.49
1X2
SW Bregenz
Draw
Sturm Graz II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
SW Bregenz
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Sturm Graz II
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SW Bregenz
2–2–2
Sturm Graz II
(6 last)
- SW Bregenz1-3Sturm Graz II
- Sturm Graz II3-1SW Bregenz
- SW Bregenz3-2Sturm Graz II
- Sturm Graz II0-0SW Bregenz
- SW Bregenz3-3Sturm Graz II
- Sturm Graz II0-2SW Bregenz
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SW Bregenz 1542 · Sturm Graz II 1413
| SW Bregenz | Draw | Sturm Graz II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SW Bregenz (rating 1542 vs 1413).
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SW Bregenz | Sturm Graz II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1 | 0.8 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.7 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 1.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SW Bregenz 2–2–2 Sturm Graz II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 Austria 2. Liga | SW Bregenz | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Sturm Graz II |
| 04/10/25 Austria 2. Liga | Sturm Graz II | 3-1 HT 2-0 | SW Bregenz |
| 07/12/24 Austria 2. Liga | SW Bregenz | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Sturm Graz II |
| 03/08/24 Austria 2. Liga | Sturm Graz II | 0-0 HT 0-0 | SW Bregenz |
| 06/04/24 Austria 2. Liga | SW Bregenz | 3-3 HT 0-2 | Sturm Graz II |
| 17/09/23 Austria 2. Liga | Sturm Graz II | 0-2 HT 0-1 | SW Bregenz |
Standings · Austria 2. Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Blau Weiss Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | FK Austria Vienna II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | FC Wacker Innsbruck | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Rapid Vienna II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | SV Austria Salzburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | ASK Voitsberg | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | SKU Amstetten | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 8 | Floridsdorfer AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 9 | SW Bregenz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 10 | First Vienna FC 1894 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Admira Wacker | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Hertha Wels | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | FC Liefering | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Sturm Graz II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | St Polten | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SW Bregenz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | ASK Voitsberg Austria 2. Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | SV Kapfenberg Austria 2. Liga |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 31/07 | FC Wacker Innsbruck Austria 2. Liga |
0-4 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Vortuna Bad Leonfelden Austria Cup |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 15/07 | Austria Lustenau Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 11/07 | Hohenems Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 07/07 | FC Dornbirn 1913 Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 03/07 | SC Bruhl Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | St Gallen II Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | St Gallen U21 Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
Sturm Graz II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Admira Wacker Austria 2. Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Floridsdorfer AC Austria 2. Liga |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | First Vienna FC 1894 Austria 2. Liga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 25/07 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 24/07 | FC Gleisdorf 09 Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 19/07 | Al Hilal Riyadh World Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 03/07 | Kispest Honved Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 26/06 | Oberwart Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 14/05 | Rapid Vienna II Austria 2. Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 08/05 | Hertha Wels Austria 2. Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SW Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SW Bregenz win (45%). Probabilities: SW Bregenz 45%, draw 25%, Sturm Graz II 30%.
How many goals are expected in SW Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II?
The model expects 3.35 goals (SW Bregenz 1.86 · Sturm Graz II 1.49), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in SW Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.