Football · Austria 2. Liga · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II

Team pages: FC Liefering · Sturm Graz II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

FC Liefering2.23

Sturm Graz II1.89

1X2

45% 23% 32%

FC Liefering Draw Sturm Graz II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Liefering 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Sturm Graz II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Liefering 2–3–1 Sturm Graz II (6 last)

Sturm Graz II0-1FC Liefering
FC Liefering2-2Sturm Graz II
Sturm Graz II1-0FC Liefering
FC Liefering2-2Sturm Graz II
FC Liefering4-1Sturm Graz II
Sturm Graz II1-1FC Liefering

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Liefering 1488 · Sturm Graz II 1425

	FC Liefering	Draw	Sturm Graz II
Our model	46%	22%	33%
Market	45%	23%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Liefering (rating 1488 vs 1425).
H2H favours FC Liefering: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Liefering	Sturm Graz II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.8	1.6 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.90

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.10 ★
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.02

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:22 +7’	2.05	3.90	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +618’	2.03	4.10	3.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Liefering 2–3–1 Sturm Graz II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 Austria 2. Liga	Sturm Graz II	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Liefering
15/08/25 Austria 2. Liga	FC Liefering	2-2 HT 2-0	Sturm Graz II
14/03/25 Austria 2. Liga	Sturm Graz II	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Liefering
30/08/24 Austria 2. Liga	FC Liefering	2-2 HT 1-0	Sturm Graz II
03/05/24 Austria 2. Liga	FC Liefering	4-1 HT 3-0	Sturm Graz II
21/10/23 Austria 2. Liga	Sturm Graz II	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Liefering

Standings · Austria 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Blau Weiss Linz	7	6	0	1	20	4	18
2	First Vienna FC 1894	7	5	1	1	14	7	16
3	Floridsdorfer AC	7	4	1	2	13	10	13
4	SKU Amstetten	7	3	3	1	14	11	12
5	FK Austria Vienna II	7	4	0	3	13	11	12
6	FC Wacker Innsbruck	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
7	SV Austria Salzburg	7	3	1	3	14	12	10
8	FC Liefering	7	3	1	3	14	15	10
9	SW Bregenz	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
10	St Polten	7	3	0	4	6	6	9
11	Admira Wacker	7	3	0	4	7	8	9
12	ASK Voitsberg	7	2	3	2	10	12	9
13	Sturm Graz II	7	2	2	3	15	18	8
14	Rapid Vienna II	7	2	0	5	7	17	6
15	Hertha Wels	7	1	1	5	8	17	4
16	SV Kapfenberg	7	1	0	6	9	17	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Liefering	Sturm Graz II
Floridsdorfer AC	0-4 L	4-2 W
First Vienna FC 1894	2-2 D	0-4 L
Hertha Wels	2-3 L	0-2 L
Admira Wacker	3-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Liefering (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Liefering

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Floridsdorfer AC Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-4	1	5	L
13/09	St Polten Austria 2. Liga	0-1	1-3	1	4	L
28/08	ASK Voitsberg Austria 2. Liga	1-1	3-2	5	7	W
21/08	FK Austria Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	10	5	W
16/08	First Vienna FC 1894 Austria 2. Liga	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
07/08	Hertha Wels Austria 2. Liga	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
31/07	SV Kapfenberg Austria 2. Liga	2-0	4-0	1	5	W
14/05	Austria Klagenfurt Austria 2. Liga	1-1	3-2	12	1	W
08/05	Admira Wacker Austria 2. Liga	1-0	3-0	6	6	W
02/05	SV Kapfenberg Austria 2. Liga	4-1	4-1	3	4	W

Sturm Graz II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FC Wacker Innsbruck Austria 2. Liga	1-2	2-2	3	6	D
12/09	SV Austria Salzburg Austria 2. Liga	1-1	3-3	6	10	D
30/08	Rapid Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	2-1	5-2	7	6	W
22/08	SW Bregenz Austria 2. Liga	1-2	1-3	0	4	L
15/08	Admira Wacker Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
08/08	Floridsdorfer AC Austria 2. Liga	2-2	4-2	3	2	W
01/08	First Vienna FC 1894 Austria 2. Liga	0-2	0-4	4	1	L
14/05	Rapid Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
08/05	Hertha Wels Austria 2. Liga	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
02/05	SV Austria Salzburg Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Liefering win (45%). Probabilities: FC Liefering 45%, draw 23%, Sturm Graz II 32%.

How many goals are expected in FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II?

The model expects 4.12 goals (FC Liefering 2.23 · Sturm Graz II 1.89), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.