Football · Austria 2. Liga · 09/10, 18:30

Prediction: SV Kapfenberg vs FK Austria Vienna II

Team pages: SV Kapfenberg · FK Austria Vienna II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

SV Kapfenberg1.63

FK Austria Vienna II1.87

1X2

33% 25% 43%

SV Kapfenberg Draw FK Austria Vienna II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

SV Kapfenberg 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLWLL

FK Austria Vienna II 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWLWLW

Head-to-head

SV Kapfenberg 4–1–1 FK Austria Vienna II (6 last)

FK Austria Vienna II1-2SV Kapfenberg
SV Kapfenberg1-2FK Austria Vienna II
SV Kapfenberg4-2FK Austria Vienna II
FK Austria Vienna II2-2SV Kapfenberg
SV Kapfenberg5-1FK Austria Vienna II
FK Austria Vienna II1-3SV Kapfenberg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SV Kapfenberg 1408 · FK Austria Vienna II 1512

	SV Kapfenberg	Draw	FK Austria Vienna II
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	32%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Austria Vienna II (rating 1408 vs 1512).
H2H favours SV Kapfenberg: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SV Kapfenberg	FK Austria Vienna II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.5	1.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.6	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.60

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.91 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.68
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.21

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
23:32 +128’	2.80	3.60	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:10 +390’	2.91	3.68	2.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SV Kapfenberg 4–1–1 FK Austria Vienna II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Austria 2. Liga	FK Austria Vienna II	1-2 HT 1-1	SV Kapfenberg
28/11/25 Austria 2. Liga	SV Kapfenberg	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Austria Vienna II
25/02/23 Austria 2. Liga	SV Kapfenberg	4-2 HT 2-1	FK Austria Vienna II
05/08/22 Austria 2. Liga	FK Austria Vienna II	2-2 HT 0-1	SV Kapfenberg
06/05/22 Austria 2. Liga	SV Kapfenberg	5-1 HT 4-1	FK Austria Vienna II
30/10/21 Austria 2. Liga	FK Austria Vienna II	1-3 HT 1-2	SV Kapfenberg

Standings · Austria 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Blau Weiss Linz	7	6	0	1	20	4	18
2	First Vienna FC 1894	7	5	1	1	14	7	16
3	Floridsdorfer AC	7	4	1	2	13	10	13
4	SKU Amstetten	7	3	3	1	14	11	12
5	FK Austria Vienna II	7	4	0	3	13	11	12
6	FC Wacker Innsbruck	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
7	SV Austria Salzburg	7	3	1	3	14	12	10
8	FC Liefering	7	3	1	3	14	15	10
9	SW Bregenz	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
10	St Polten	7	3	0	4	6	6	9
11	Admira Wacker	7	3	0	4	7	8	9
12	ASK Voitsberg	7	2	3	2	10	12	9
13	Sturm Graz II	7	2	2	3	15	18	8
14	Rapid Vienna II	7	2	0	5	7	17	6
15	Hertha Wels	7	1	1	5	8	17	4
16	SV Kapfenberg	7	1	0	6	9	17	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SV Kapfenberg	FK Austria Vienna II
SKU Amstetten	3-4 L	2-4 L
FC Blau Weiss Linz	2-1 W	0-3 L
SV Austria Salzburg	2-3 L	3-1 W
SW Bregenz	2-3 L	2-0 W
FC Liefering	0-4 L	1-2 L
St Polten	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Austria Vienna II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SV Kapfenberg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	SKU Amstetten Austria 2. Liga	1-2	3-4	3	2	L
11/09	Admira Wacker Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
28/08	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
21/08	SV Austria Salzburg Austria 2. Liga	1-2	2-3	3	7	L
15/08	FC Wacker Innsbruck Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
08/08	SW Bregenz Austria 2. Liga	0-1	2-3	5	6	L
31/07	FC Liefering Austria 2. Liga	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
14/05	FK Austria Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
08/05	St Polten Austria 2. Liga	0-3	0-3	3	3	L
02/05	FC Liefering Austria 2. Liga	1-4	1-4	2	4	L

FK Austria Vienna II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Rapid Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
11/09	SKU Amstetten Austria 2. Liga	1-2	2-4	4	2	L
29/08	SW Bregenz Austria 2. Liga	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
21/08	FC Liefering Austria 2. Liga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
15/08	SV Austria Salzburg Austria 2. Liga	3-0	3-1	4	7	W
07/08	St Polten Austria 2. Liga	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/07	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
14/05	SV Kapfenberg Austria 2. Liga	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
08/05	SW Bregenz Austria 2. Liga	2-0	2-2	2	4	D
02/05	Floridsdorfer AC Austria 2. Liga	0-2	0-5	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SV Kapfenberg vs FK Austria Vienna II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Austria Vienna II win (43%). Probabilities: SV Kapfenberg 33%, draw 25%, FK Austria Vienna II 43%.

How many goals are expected in SV Kapfenberg vs FK Austria Vienna II?

The model expects 3.5 goals (SV Kapfenberg 1.63 · FK Austria Vienna II 1.87), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SV Kapfenberg vs FK Austria Vienna II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.