Football · Romania Liga I · 11/10, 20:00

Prediction: Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Team pages: Farul Constanta · Petrolul Ploiesti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Farul Constanta1.56

Petrolul Ploiesti1.02

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Farul Constanta Draw Petrolul Ploiesti

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Farul Constanta 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDDDWL

Petrolul Ploiesti 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Farul Constanta 5–1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti (6 last)

Farul Constanta2-0Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti0-1Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta2-1Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti0-1Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta2-1Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti1-1Farul Constanta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Farul Constanta 1525 · Petrolul Ploiesti 1510

	Farul Constanta	Draw	Petrolul Ploiesti
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Farul Constanta: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Farul Constanta	Petrolul Ploiesti
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.86
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:37 +4’	1.80	3.30	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:43 +204’	1.87	3.71	3.85
11:02 +50’	1.86▼	3.74▲	3.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Farul Constanta 5–1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Romania Liga I	Farul Constanta	2-0 HT 1-0	Petrolul Ploiesti
25/01/26 Romania Liga I	Petrolul Ploiesti	0-1 HT 0-1	Farul Constanta
01/09/25 Romania Liga I	Farul Constanta	2-1 HT 1-1	Petrolul Ploiesti
28/04/25 Romania Liga I	Petrolul Ploiesti	0-1 HT 0-0	Farul Constanta
03/02/25 Romania Liga I	Farul Constanta	2-1 HT 1-1	Petrolul Ploiesti
14/09/24 Romania Liga I	Petrolul Ploiesti	1-1 HT 0-0	Farul Constanta

Standings · Romania Liga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucharest	11	8	2	1	25	7	26
2	Rapid Bucuresti	10	6	3	1	14	6	21
3	CS U Craiova	10	6	2	2	24	9	20
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	10	6	1	3	13	12	19
5	Universitatea Cluj	10	6	0	4	17	14	18
6	CS Corvinul Hunedoara	11	4	4	3	14	11	16
7	Farul Constanta	10	3	5	2	14	14	14
8	CFR Cluj	10	4	1	5	16	17	13
9	ACS Sepsi	11	3	4	4	7	12	13
10	ACS UTA Batrana Doamna	10	3	3	4	14	15	12
11	FCSB	10	3	3	4	13	17	12
12	FC Botosani	10	2	5	3	14	12	11
13	FC Arges Pitesti	10	3	2	5	6	10	11
14	Otelul Galati	10	2	4	4	11	15	10
15	FC Voluntari	11	2	2	7	11	25	8
16	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc	10	0	1	9	6	23	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Farul Constanta	Petrolul Ploiesti
Dinamo Bucharest	0-4 L	1-0 W
FC Arges Pitesti	1-1 D	0-1 L
FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc	3-2 W	2-0 W
FCSB	2-2 D	2-2 D
CS Corvinul Hunedoara	2-0 W	2-0 W
Universitatea Cluj	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Petrolul Ploiesti (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Farul Constanta

LWDWDDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Dinamo Bucharest Romania Liga I	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
11/09	ACS UTA Batrana Doamna Romania Liga I	3-1	4-2	1	2	W
04/09	CFR Cluj Romania Liga I	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
30/08	FC Botosani Romania Liga I	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
23/08	ACS Sepsi Romania Liga I	0-0	1-1	9	5	D
14/08	FC Arges Pitesti Romania Liga I	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
08/08	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc Romania Liga I	3-1	3-2	1	6	W
03/08	FCSB Romania Liga I	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
25/07	CS Corvinul Hunedoara Romania Liga I	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
19/07	Universitatea Cluj Romania Liga I	0-1	1-2	4	4	L

Petrolul Ploiesti

WLLWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc Romania Liga I	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
14/09	FCSB Romania Liga I	1-2	2-2	4	4	D
06/09	CS Corvinul Hunedoara Romania Liga I	1-0	2-0	1	10	W
28/08	Universitatea Cluj Romania Liga I	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
21/08	Rapid Bucuresti Romania Liga I	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
14/08	FC Voluntari Romania Liga I	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
09/08	Otelul Galati Romania Liga I	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
01/08	CS U Craiova Romania Liga I	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
24/07	FC Arges Pitesti Romania Liga I	0-1	0-1	6	10	L
19/07	Dinamo Bucharest Romania Liga I	1-0	1-0	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Farul Constanta win (49%). Probabilities: Farul Constanta 49%, draw 27%, Petrolul Ploiesti 24%.

How many goals are expected in Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Farul Constanta 1.56 · Petrolul Ploiesti 1.02), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.