Football · Sweden 2.div Norrland · 03/10, 13:00

Prediction: Umeå FF vs Friska Viljor FC

Team pages: Umeå FF · Friska Viljor FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.95Total

Umeå FF2.17

Friska Viljor FC1.78

1X2

46% 23% 31%

Umeå FF Draw Friska Viljor FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Umeå FF 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLLLW

Friska Viljor FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWWLWLWW

Head-to-head

Umeå FF 4–2–0 Friska Viljor FC (6 last)

Friska Viljor FC1-4Umeå FF
Umeå FF3-3Friska Viljor FC
Friska Viljor FC1-1Umeå FF
Umeå FF1-0Friska Viljor FC
Friska Viljor FC0-1Umeå FF
Umeå FF2-1Friska Viljor FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Umeå FF 1507 · Friska Viljor FC 1512

	Umeå FF	Draw	Friska Viljor FC
Our model	47%	22%	31%
Market	46%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Umeå FF: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Umeå FF	Friska Viljor FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2	1.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.8	2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.90

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.95▲	Pinn 2.11 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.12
2	3.00 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:36 +12’	1.90	3.90	3.00
09:27 +12’	1.95▲	3.90	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:18 +38’	2.09	4.04	2.50
11:05 +57’	2.11▲	4.12▲	2.53▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Umeå FF 4–2–0 Friska Viljor FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Sweden 2.div Norrland	Friska Viljor FC	1-4 HT 0-3	Umeå FF
27/06/26 Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	Umeå FF	3-3 HT 2-0	Friska Viljor FC
17/05/26 Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	Friska Viljor FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Umeå FF
25/08/23 Sweden 2.div Norrland	Umeå FF	1-0 HT 1-0	Friska Viljor FC
28/04/23 Sweden 2.div Norrland	Friska Viljor FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Umeå FF
10/10/21 Sweden 2.div Norrland	Umeå FF	2-1 HT 2-1	Friska Viljor FC

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norrland · Norrland, Relegation Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Umeå FC Academy	9	5	1	3	27	15	16
2	Friska Viljor FC	8	5	1	2	18	14	16
3	Fränsta IK	8	5	0	3	19	17	15
4	Storfors AIK	8	4	1	3	14	11	13
5	Umeå FF	8	4	0	4	18	16	12
6	IFK Umeå	9	0	1	8	8	31	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Umeå FF	Friska Viljor FC
IFK Umeå	3-1 W	3-2 W
Umeå FC Academy	2-4 L	1-5 L
Storfors AIK	0-3 L	3-0 W
Fränsta IK	2-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Umeå FF

LWLWWWLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	IFK Umeå Sweden 2.div Norrland	2-1	3-1	11	5	W
19/09	Umeå FC Academy Sweden 2.div Norrland	2-2	2-4	–	–	L
12/09	Storfors AIK Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
05/09	Fränsta IK Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-3	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	Friska Viljor FC Sweden 2.div Norrland	3-0	4-1	–	–	W
21/08	IFK Umeå Sweden 2.div Norrland	3-0	4-0	2	2	W
15/08	Umeå FC Academy Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	Storfors AIK Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-1	1-4	0	0	L
14/06	Lucksta IF Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-1	5-1	2	7	W
14/05	Fränsta IK Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-1	2-3	9	3	L

Friska Viljor FC

LDDWWLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Storfors AIK Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
19/09	Fränsta IK Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Umeå FC Academy Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-2	1-5	–	–	L
05/09	IFK Umeå Sweden 2.div Norrland	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
29/08	Umeå FF Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-3	1-4	–	–	L
22/08	Storfors AIK Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	Fränsta IK Sweden 2.div Norrland	2-0	4-2	–	–	W
08/08	Umeå FC Academy Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
11/06	Gottne IF Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
18/10	Kiruna FF Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-3	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Umeå FF vs Friska Viljor FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Umeå FF win (46%). Probabilities: Umeå FF 46%, draw 23%, Friska Viljor FC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Umeå FF vs Friska Viljor FC?

The model expects 3.95 goals (Umeå FF 2.17 · Friska Viljor FC 1.78), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Umeå FF vs Friska Viljor FC?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.