Football · Sweden 2.div Norrland · 16/09, 19:00

Prediction: Bodens BK FF vs IFK Luleå

Team pages: Bodens BK FF · IFK Luleå

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Bodens BK FF1.15

IFK Luleå2.07

1X2

20% 23% 58%

Bodens BK FF Draw IFK Luleå

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Bodens BK FF 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWDDLL

IFK Luleå 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLWWW

Head-to-head

Bodens BK FF 1–3–2 IFK Luleå (6 last)

IFK Luleå0-1Bodens BK FF
Bodens BK FF1-4IFK Luleå
IFK Luleå1-1Bodens BK FF
IFK Luleå1-1Bodens BK FF
Bodens BK FF0-2IFK Luleå
IFK Luleå1-1Bodens BK FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bodens BK FF 1491 · IFK Luleå 1520

	Bodens BK FF	Draw	IFK Luleå
Our model	20%	23%	58%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours IFK Luleå: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bodens BK FF	IFK Luleå
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	3.7 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.00

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
X	3.80 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	1.80 → 1.55▼	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +8’	3.40	3.80	1.80
14:16 +3’	4.50▲	4.00▲	1.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bodens BK FF 1–3–2 IFK Luleå

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/08/26 Sweden 2.div Norrland	IFK Luleå	0-1 HT 0-0	Bodens BK FF
22/06/26 Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	Bodens BK FF	1-4 HT 0-2	IFK Luleå
10/05/26 Sweden 2.div Norrland	IFK Luleå	1-1 HT 1-1	Bodens BK FF
25/06/25 Sweden 2.div Norrland	IFK Luleå	1-1 HT 1-0	Bodens BK FF
19/05/25 Sweden 2.div Norrland	Bodens BK FF	0-2 HT 0-2	IFK Luleå
26/06/24 Sweden 2.div Norrland	IFK Luleå	1-1 HT 0-1	Bodens BK FF

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norrland · Norrland, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kubikenborgs IF	8	6	0	2	19	9	18
2	Skellefteå FF	8	4	3	1	16	13	15
3	IFK Luleå	8	5	0	3	12	12	15
4	IFK Östersund	8	4	2	2	21	14	14
5	Bodens BK FF	8	3	2	3	12	18	11
6	Lucksta IF	8	2	1	5	10	15	7
7	Täfteå IK	8	2	0	6	13	19	6
8	Gottne IF	8	1	2	5	12	15	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bodens BK FF	IFK Luleå
Kubikenborgs IF	1-6 L	1-3 L
Skellefteå FF	2-2 D	1-3 L
IFK Östersund	2-2 D	4-3 W
Gottne IF	3-2 W	1-0 W
Täfteå IK	2-1 W	2-1 W
Lucksta IF	0-3 L	1-0 W
Storfors AIK	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Luleå (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bodens BK FF

WDLWWWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Kubikenborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-5	1-6	–	–	L
05/09	Kubikenborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Skellefteå FF Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	IFK Östersund Sweden 2.div Norrland	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Gottne IF Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
12/08	IFK Luleå Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Täfteå IK Sweden 2.div Norrland	2-1	2-1	5	1	W
01/08	Lucksta IF Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
10/05	IFK Luleå Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-1	1-1	0	0	D
01/05	Storfors AIK Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-0	2-0	5	3	W

IFK Luleå

WLWWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Täfteå IK Sweden 2.div Norrland	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Täfteå IK Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	Lucksta IF Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Kubikenborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	Skellefteå FF Sweden 2.div Norrland	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
12/08	Bodens BK FF Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Gottne IF Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	IFK Östersund Sweden 2.div Norrland	2-3	4-3	9	3	W
13/06	Storfors AIK Sweden 2.div Norrland	0-0	0-1	11	0	L
30/05	IFK Umeå Sweden 2.div Norrland	4-0	6-1	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bodens BK FF vs IFK Luleå?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IFK Luleå win (58%). Probabilities: Bodens BK FF 20%, draw 23%, IFK Luleå 58%.

How many goals are expected in Bodens BK FF vs IFK Luleå?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Bodens BK FF 1.15 · IFK Luleå 2.07), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bodens BK FF vs IFK Luleå?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.