Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 12/08, 17:00

Prediction: Utenis Utena vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda II

Team pages: Utenis Utena · FK Neptunas Klaipeda II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Utenis Utena1.42

FK Neptunas Klaipeda II2.07

1X2

26% 22% 52%

Utenis Utena Draw FK Neptunas Klaipeda II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Utenis Utena 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLDDL

FK Neptunas Klaipeda II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWWLLW

Head-to-head

Utenis Utena 1–0 FK Neptunas Klaipeda II (1 last)

FK Neptunas Klaipeda II0-2Utenis Utena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Utenis Utena 1446 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda II 1517

	Utenis Utena	Draw	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II
Our model	25%	23%	52%
Market	26%	21%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda II (rating 1446 vs 1517).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Utenis Utena	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.9	2.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.1	4 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X4.20

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +3’	3.40	4.20	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Utenis Utena 1–0–0 FK Neptunas Klaipeda II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/03/26 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	0-2 HT 0-1	Utenis Utena

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	15	11	3	1	35	11	36
2	Vilnius Football Academy	16	10	4	2	53	20	34
3	Suduva Marijampole II	16	9	3	4	32	18	30
4	FM Klaipedos	16	9	2	5	26	18	29
5	FK Sveikata	16	7	5	4	32	23	26
6	FKS Ukmerge	16	7	2	7	24	22	23
7	FK Panevezys II	16	6	5	5	37	30	23
8	FK Sirvena	16	6	5	5	28	21	23
9	Sirijus Klaipeda	15	6	4	5	31	25	22
10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	17	6	3	8	31	32	21
11	Banga Gargzdai II	16	5	4	7	23	20	19
12	FK Silute	16	4	4	8	21	36	16
13	Utenis Utena	17	4	4	9	21	41	16
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	16	3	2	11	22	58	11
15	DFK Dainava II	16	2	0	14	21	62	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Utenis Utena	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II
Banga Gargzdai II	0-4 L	1-1 D
FK Sirvena	0-3 L	2-1 W
FK Viltis Vilnius	4-2 W	1-2 L
Suduva Marijampole II	0-5 L	2-3 L
FKS Ukmerge	2-1 W	3-2 W
Sirijus Klaipeda	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Neptunas Klaipeda II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Utenis Utena

LWLWLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
02/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
22/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	2-2	2	3	D
19/06	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
12/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-4	1-6	4	5	L
30/05	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-3	4	7	L
22/05	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	4-2	–	–	W
14/05	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-5	2	2	L
06/05	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
03/05	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

FK Neptunas Klaipeda II

DDLWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	9	6	W
02/08	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-2	12	12	L
28/06	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-3	5	1	L
24/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	6-1	–	–	W
21/06	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
14/06	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	3-1	–	–	W
07/06	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
29/05	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
23/05	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
11/05	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Utenis Utena vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Neptunas Klaipeda II win (52%). Probabilities: Utenis Utena 26%, draw 22%, FK Neptunas Klaipeda II 52%.

How many goals are expected in Utenis Utena vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda II?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Utenis Utena 1.42 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda II 2.07), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Utenis Utena vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.