Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 14/08, 18:00

Prediction: FKS Ukmerge vs Sirijus Klaipeda

Team pages: FKS Ukmerge · Sirijus Klaipeda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

FKS Ukmerge1.58

Sirijus Klaipeda1.37

1X2

42% 25% 33%

FKS Ukmerge Draw Sirijus Klaipeda

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FKS Ukmerge 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLWLWW

Sirijus Klaipeda 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLWLWW

Head-to-head

FKS Ukmerge 1–2–0 Sirijus Klaipeda (3 last)

Sirijus Klaipeda0-1FKS Ukmerge
Sirijus Klaipeda0-0FKS Ukmerge
FKS Ukmerge0-0Sirijus Klaipeda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FKS Ukmerge 1514 · Sirijus Klaipeda 1529

	FKS Ukmerge	Draw	Sirijus Klaipeda
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	43%	23%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FKS Ukmerge	Sirijus Klaipeda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	2.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.8	4.2 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.90

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:53 +11’	2.05	3.90	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FKS Ukmerge 1–2–0 Sirijus Klaipeda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Sirijus Klaipeda	0-1 HT 0-1	FKS Ukmerge
24/08/25 Lithuania II Lyga	Sirijus Klaipeda	0-0 HT 0-0	FKS Ukmerge
27/04/25 Lithuania II Lyga	FKS Ukmerge	0-0 HT 0-0	Sirijus Klaipeda

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	15	11	3	1	35	11	36
2	Vilnius Football Academy	16	10	4	2	53	20	34
3	Suduva Marijampole II	16	9	3	4	32	18	30
4	FM Klaipedos	16	9	2	5	26	18	29
5	FK Sveikata	16	7	5	4	32	23	26
6	FKS Ukmerge	16	7	2	7	24	22	23
7	FK Panevezys II	16	6	5	5	37	30	23
8	FK Sirvena	16	6	5	5	28	21	23
9	Sirijus Klaipeda	15	6	4	5	31	25	22
10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	17	6	3	8	31	32	21
11	Banga Gargzdai II	16	5	4	7	23	20	19
12	FK Silute	16	4	4	8	21	36	16
13	Utenis Utena	17	4	4	9	21	41	16
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	16	3	2	11	22	58	11
15	DFK Dainava II	16	2	0	14	21	62	6

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FKS Ukmerge	Sirijus Klaipeda
DFK Dainava II	2-1 W	5-2 W
FM Klaipedos	2-1 W	0-1 L
FK Silute	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	2-3 L	1-3 L
Banga Gargzdai II	1-0 W	2-2 D
FK Sveikata	1-2 L	2-2 D
FK Panevezys II	1-1 D	5-1 W
Nevezis	1-2 L	1-1 D
Vilnius Football Academy	1-1 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sirijus Klaipeda (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FKS Ukmerge

DLDLWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
01/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
03/07	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
26/06	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	5	W
21/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
12/06	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
07/06	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	1-2	11	3	L
31/05	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
22/05	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
15/05	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-1	3	8	D

Sirijus Klaipeda

WDWDDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	5-2	11	2	W
04/07	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	3-1	4-1	1	4	W
27/06	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/06	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	14	5	W
14/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
05/06	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
29/05	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-2	9	4	D
23/05	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	5-1	5	5	W
15/05	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/05	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	4-2	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FKS Ukmerge vs Sirijus Klaipeda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FKS Ukmerge win (42%). Probabilities: FKS Ukmerge 42%, draw 25%, Sirijus Klaipeda 33%.

How many goals are expected in FKS Ukmerge vs Sirijus Klaipeda?

The model expects 2.95 goals (FKS Ukmerge 1.58 · Sirijus Klaipeda 1.37), with a 59% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FKS Ukmerge vs Sirijus Klaipeda?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.