Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 08/10, 18:00

Prediction: FK Mornar Bar vs FK Jezero

Team pages: FK Mornar Bar · FK Jezero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

FK Mornar Bar1.75

FK Jezero0.76

1X2

60% 25% 15%

FK Mornar Bar Draw FK Jezero

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Mornar Bar 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDWLLD

FK Jezero 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLDLWLDL

Head-to-head

FK Mornar Bar 4–1–1 FK Jezero (6 last)

FK Jezero0-0FK Mornar Bar
FK Jezero0-2FK Mornar Bar
FK Jezero1-2FK Mornar Bar
FK Mornar Bar1-0FK Jezero
FK Mornar Bar2-0FK Jezero
FK Jezero2-1FK Mornar Bar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Mornar Bar 1560 · FK Jezero 1457

	FK Mornar Bar	Draw	FK Jezero
Our model	60%	25%	15%
Market	60%	25%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Mornar Bar (rating 1560 vs 1457).
H2H favours FK Mornar Bar: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Mornar Bar	FK Jezero
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.7	1.5 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.60

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +7’	1.50	3.60	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Mornar Bar 4–1–1 FK Jezero

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Mornar Bar
24/05/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Mornar Bar
06/05/26 Montenegro Cup	FK Jezero	1-2 HT 0-2	FK Mornar Bar
22/04/26 Montenegro Cup	FK Mornar Bar	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Jezero
04/04/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	2-0 HT 2-0	FK Jezero
06/12/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Mornar Bar

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sutjeska Niksic	9	4	2	3	11	7	14
2	FK Decic Tuzi	8	4	2	2	9	6	14
3	Buducnost Podgorica	9	4	2	3	11	7	14
4	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	8	4	1	3	11	9	13
5	FK Mornar Bar	8	3	3	2	8	6	12
6	FK Bokelj	8	3	3	2	5	5	12
7	OFK Mladost DG	8	3	1	4	8	12	10
8	FK Jezero	8	2	3	3	8	11	9
9	OFK Petrovac	9	1	5	3	7	9	8
10	FK Arsenal	9	1	4	4	5	11	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Mornar Bar	FK Jezero
FK Decic Tuzi	1-1 D	1-2 L
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	0-1 L	1-4 L
Sutjeska Niksic	0-1 L	0-0 D
FK Bokelj	2-0 W	1-1 D
OFK Petrovac	1-1 D	0-3 L
Buducnost Podgorica	2-1 W	0-3 L
OFK Mladost DG	3-2 W	1-0 W
FK Arsenal	0-0 D	5-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Mornar Bar (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Mornar Bar

WDDWWDWLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
14/09	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
08/09	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
03/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
21/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	2-1	9	5	W
16/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	3-2	7	2	W
07/08	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
02/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	7	1	W

FK Jezero

LDWLDLWLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-4	3	5	L
15/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
10/09	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
05/09	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	5-2	4	4	W
30/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	0	3	L
22/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
16/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
09/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
02/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Mornar Bar vs FK Jezero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Mornar Bar win (60%). Probabilities: FK Mornar Bar 60%, draw 25%, FK Jezero 15%.

How many goals are expected in FK Mornar Bar vs FK Jezero?

The model expects 2.51 goals (FK Mornar Bar 1.75 · FK Jezero 0.76), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Mornar Bar vs FK Jezero?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.