Football · USA USL Super League Women · 11/10, 00:00
Prediction: Tampa Bay Sun (W) vs Carolina Ascent (W)
Team pages: Tampa Bay Sun (W) · Carolina Ascent (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
Tampa Bay Sun (W)1.11
Carolina Ascent (W)1.29
1X2
Tampa Bay Sun (W)
Draw
Carolina Ascent (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Tampa Bay Sun (W)
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Carolina Ascent (W)
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tampa Bay Sun (W)
1–2–3
Carolina Ascent (W)
(6 last)
- Carolina Ascent (W)1-2Tampa Bay Sun (W)
- Tampa Bay Sun (W)1-2Carolina Ascent (W)
- Tampa Bay Sun (W)1-2Carolina Ascent (W)
- Carolina Ascent (W)1-0Tampa Bay Sun (W)
- Carolina Ascent (W)2-2Tampa Bay Sun (W)
- Carolina Ascent (W)1-1Tampa Bay Sun (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tampa Bay Sun (W) 1481 · Carolina Ascent (W) 1605
| Tampa Bay Sun (W) | Draw | Carolina Ascent (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 30% | 39% |
| Market | 31% | 29% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carolina Ascent (W) (rating 1481 vs 1605).
- H2H favours Carolina Ascent (W): 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tampa Bay Sun (W) | Carolina Ascent (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.5 | 2.1 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampa Bay Sun (W) 1–2–3 Carolina Ascent (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/26 USA USL Super League Women | Carolina Ascent (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) |
| 26/04/26 USA USL Super League Women | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Carolina Ascent (W) |
| 05/04/26 USA USL Super League Women | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Carolina Ascent (W) |
| 14/03/26 USA USL Super League Women | Carolina Ascent (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) |
| 07/09/25 USA USL Super League Women | Carolina Ascent (W) | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) |
| 18/05/25 USA USL Super League Women | Carolina Ascent (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) |
Standings · USA USL Super League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Ascent (W) | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | DC Power (W) | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting JAX (W) | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| 4 | Lexington SC (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Dallas Trinity (W) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| 7 | Brooklyn (W) | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 6 |
| 8 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | Carolina Ascent (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Lexington SC (W) | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| DC Power (W) | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Sporting JAX (W) | 2-3 L | 3-3 D |
| Dallas Trinity (W) | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Carolina Ascent (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tampa Bay Sun (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | DC Power (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Sporting JAX (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 16/08 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
Carolina Ascent (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Sporting JAX (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 20/09 | Brooklyn (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 16/08 | DC Power (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Sporting JAX (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Sporting JAX (W) USA USL Super League Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tampa Bay Sun (W) vs Carolina Ascent (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Carolina Ascent (W) win (40%). Probabilities: Tampa Bay Sun (W) 31%, draw 30%, Carolina Ascent (W) 40%.
How many goals are expected in Tampa Bay Sun (W) vs Carolina Ascent (W)?
The model expects 2.4 goals (Tampa Bay Sun (W) 1.11 · Carolina Ascent (W) 1.29), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tampa Bay Sun (W) vs Carolina Ascent (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.