Football · Croatia 1.NL · 22/08, 19:00

Prediction: HNK Cibalia vs NK Dubrava Zagreb

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

HNK Cibalia1.97

NK Dubrava Zagreb0.92

1X2

61% 24% 16%

HNK Cibalia Draw NK Dubrava Zagreb

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

HNK Cibalia 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWWWD

NK Dubrava Zagreb 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDWWWW

Head-to-head

HNK Cibalia 0–2–4 NK Dubrava Zagreb (6 last)

NK Dubrava Zagreb2-2HNK Cibalia
NK Dubrava Zagreb2-1HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia0-0NK Dubrava Zagreb
HNK Cibalia1-2NK Dubrava Zagreb
NK Dubrava Zagreb1-0HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia1-2NK Dubrava Zagreb

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HNK Cibalia 1528 · NK Dubrava Zagreb 1459

	HNK Cibalia	Draw	NK Dubrava Zagreb
Our model	61%	23%	16%
Market	61%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HNK Cibalia (rating 1528 vs 1459).
H2H favours NK Dubrava Zagreb: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HNK Cibalia	NK Dubrava Zagreb
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.7	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.57 ★
X	3.80 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.79
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:35 +5’	1.48	3.80	5.75
09:56 +7’	1.48	3.75▼	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:22 +17’	1.46	4.13	5.57
02:59 +5’	1.46▼	4.11▼	5.62▲
09:56 +6’	1.57▲	3.79▼	4.84▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HNK Cibalia 0–2–4 NK Dubrava Zagreb

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Croatia 1.NL	NK Dubrava Zagreb	2-2 HT 1-2	HNK Cibalia
27/02/26 Croatia 1.NL	NK Dubrava Zagreb	2-1 HT 0-0	HNK Cibalia
05/10/25 Croatia 1.NL	HNK Cibalia	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Dubrava Zagreb
12/04/25 Croatia 1.NL	HNK Cibalia	1-2 HT 0-1	NK Dubrava Zagreb
08/03/25 Croatia 1.NL	NK Dubrava Zagreb	1-0 HT 0-0	HNK Cibalia
11/10/24 Croatia 1.NL	HNK Cibalia	1-2 HT 0-1	NK Dubrava Zagreb

Standings · Croatia 1.NL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Sesvete	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
2	Vukovar 91	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
2	Mladost Zdralovi	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
4	Dinamo Zagreb II	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	HNK Cibalia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Bijelo Brdo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	NK Croatia Zmijavci	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	NK Dubrava Zagreb	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	NK Dugopolje	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Hrvace	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Jadran LP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	NK Kustosija	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	NK Opatija	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	HNK Segesta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Orijent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Karlovac	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HNK Cibalia	NK Dubrava Zagreb
NK Jarun	1-1 D	2-0 W
Orijent	3-2 W	1-0 W
NK Rudes	3-2 W	1-1 D
NK Sesvete	2-0 W	1-3 L
NK Dugopolje	1-2 L	3-4 L
Bijelo Brdo	2-0 W	1-2 L
Karlovac	2-1 W	0-5 L
Hrvace	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: HNK Cibalia (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HNK Cibalia

LWDWWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	NK Jarun Croatia 1.NL	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
23/05	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
15/05	NK Rudes Croatia 1.NL	3-1	3-2	1	5	W
09/05	NK Sesvete Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
04/05	NK Dugopolje Croatia 1.NL	1-2	1-2	2	7	L
25/04	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
18/04	Karlovac Croatia 1.NL	2-0	2-1	8	5	W
11/04	NK Dubrava Zagreb Croatia 1.NL	2-1	2-2	3	11	D
04/04	NK Croatia Zmijavci Croatia 1.NL	2-0	4-0	6	6	W
28/03	Hrvace Croatia 1.NL	0-1	1-2	3	4	L

NK Dubrava Zagreb

LLDLLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Hrvace Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-1	4	0	W
23/05	NK Opatija Croatia 1.NL	3-0	3-2	6	2	W
17/05	NK Jarun Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
09/05	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/05	NK Rudes Croatia 1.NL	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
25/04	NK Sesvete Croatia 1.NL	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
18/04	NK Dugopolje Croatia 1.NL	1-3	3-4	4	2	L
11/04	HNK Cibalia Croatia 1.NL	1-2	2-2	8	11	D
07/04	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
02/04	Karlovac Croatia 1.NL	0-3	0-5	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HNK Cibalia vs NK Dubrava Zagreb?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HNK Cibalia win (61%). Probabilities: HNK Cibalia 61%, draw 24%, NK Dubrava Zagreb 16%.

How many goals are expected in HNK Cibalia vs NK Dubrava Zagreb?

The model expects 2.9 goals (HNK Cibalia 1.97 · NK Dubrava Zagreb 0.92), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in HNK Cibalia vs NK Dubrava Zagreb?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.