Football · Croatia 1.NL · 22/08, 17:30

Prediction: NK Dugopolje vs NK Kustosija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

NK Dugopolje1.79

NK Kustosija1.14

1X2

52% 24% 23%

NK Dugopolje Draw NK Kustosija

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NK Dugopolje 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWLWLL

NK Kustosija 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLDDLWWL

Head-to-head

NK Dugopolje 4–2 NK Kustosija (6 last)

NK Dugopolje2-0NK Kustosija
NK Dugopolje1-0NK Kustosija
NK Kustosija1-4NK Dugopolje
NK Kustosija4-2NK Dugopolje
NK Dugopolje1-0NK Kustosija
NK Kustosija1-0NK Dugopolje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Dugopolje 1501 · NK Kustosija 1525

	NK Dugopolje	Draw	NK Kustosija
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	53%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Dugopolje: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Dugopolje	NK Kustosija
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	63/13/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	1.9 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.80

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:11 +7’	1.70	3.80	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Dugopolje 4–0–2 NK Kustosija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/23 Croatia 1.NL	NK Dugopolje	2-0 HT 0-0	NK Kustosija
05/11/22 Croatia 1.NL	NK Dugopolje	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Kustosija
19/08/22 Croatia 1.NL	NK Kustosija	1-4 HT 0-2	NK Dugopolje
09/04/22 Croatia 1.NL	NK Kustosija	4-2 HT 2-1	NK Dugopolje
02/10/21 Croatia 1.NL	NK Dugopolje	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Kustosija
21/04/21 Croatia 1.NL	NK Kustosija	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Dugopolje

Standings · Croatia 1.NL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Sesvete	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
2	Vukovar 91	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
2	Mladost Zdralovi	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
4	Dinamo Zagreb II	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	HNK Cibalia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Bijelo Brdo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	NK Croatia Zmijavci	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	NK Dubrava Zagreb	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	NK Dugopolje	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Hrvace	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Jadran LP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	NK Kustosija	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	NK Opatija	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	HNK Segesta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Orijent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Karlovac	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Dugopolje	NK Kustosija
Karlovac	3-0 W	1-2 L
NK Dubrava Zagreb	4-3 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NK Dugopolje (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

NK Dugopolje

LWDWWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
23/05	NK Rudes Croatia 1.NL	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
16/05	NK Sesvete Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-1	0	3	W
09/05	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/05	HNK Cibalia Croatia 1.NL	2-1	2-1	6	7	W
24/04	Karlovac Croatia 1.NL	3-0	3-0	3	4	W
18/04	NK Dubrava Zagreb Croatia 1.NL	3-1	4-3	9	2	W
12/04	NK Croatia Zmijavci Croatia 1.NL	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
04/04	Hrvace Croatia 1.NL	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
27/03	NK Opatija Croatia 1.NL	0-3	0-3	5	4	L

NK Kustosija

WWWLDDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Karlovac Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-2	1	9	L
25/07	NK Dubrava Zagreb Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
22/07	NK Krka Europe Friendlies	0-1	4-1	5	2	W
16/07	NK Varazdin Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-3	1	2	L
29/05	Mladost Zdralovi Croatia 2.NL	2-3	3-3	1	10	D
22/05	NK Uljanik Croatia 2.NL	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
16/05	NK Trnje Croatia 2.NL	–	0-1	–	–	L
09/05	NK Dugo Selo Croatia 2.NL	–	4-0	–	–	W
01/05	NK Grobnican Croatia 2.NL	2-1	4-1	3	8	W
24/04	NK Lucko Croatia 2.NL	1-0	2-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Dugopolje vs NK Kustosija?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Dugopolje win (52%). Probabilities: NK Dugopolje 52%, draw 24%, NK Kustosija 23%.

How many goals are expected in NK Dugopolje vs NK Kustosija?

The model expects 2.93 goals (NK Dugopolje 1.79 · NK Kustosija 1.14), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Dugopolje vs NK Kustosija?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.